Could the Republican Senate be in jeopardy?

There's not much of a chance of the Democrats taking control on the Senate in November.  It looks favorable for Republicans to add to their majority by three seats or maybe more.  My concern is in 2020.  That's when 33 seats will be up for grabs.  Of them, 21 are Republican, and only 11 are held by Democrats.  This does not include the Mississippi and Minnesota seats, which are held by Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Tina Smith, respectively.  Both of these senators hold these seats due to vacancies and are up in 2018 and again in 2020 for a full six-year term.

In addition to the large number of seats to defend, age does not favor Republicans in 2020, either.  Of the 11 Democratic seats up in 2020, five are held by incumbents who will be at least 70 years old at the time of the election and thus worth watching for retirement signs: Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, who will be 75; Ed Markey of Massachusetts, 74; Jack Reed of Rhode Island, 70; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, 73; and Tom Udall of New Mexico, 72.

Of the 21 Republican seats up in 2020, seven are held by senators who will be 70 or older at the time of that election: Sen. David Perdue of Georgia will be 70; Sen. Michael Enzi of Wyoming, 76; Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, 78; and Sen. James Risch of Idaho, 77.  Three will be octogenarians: Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee will be 80, while Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas will be 84, and Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma will be 85.

Here is one last depressing fact.  In 2022, twenty-two GOP seats are up to just 11 Democrat ones.

Nothing is preordained, and the future is not guaranteed to anyone.  So it would be foolish to make any predictions of the makeup of the Senate after the 2020 election, not to mention 2022.

Still, it would be less than prudent to ignore the headwinds that are coming and consider how best to prepare.  Three things stand out to even a layman.

First, the GOP must address the age problem.  Republicans need to start thinking now, if they haven't done so already, about how best to position young candidates to replace the geriatrics on the team.  Some Republican elder statesmen can be reasoned with; others will have to be pushed.

Second, the Republicans must make hay while the sun shines.  Right now, they have the wind to their backs regarding the Senate.  The GOP needs to put the pedal to the metal and increase its majority as much as possible.  No seat is insignificant, nor is any election.

Third and most importantly, the GOP needs to coalesce behind President Trump, the sooner the better.  With ankle-biters like John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker out of the Senate, this should be easier to accomplish.

Trump is the key.  He's the one who can expose the mainstream media as shills for the Democrats, thus discrediting much of the media's propaganda effort.  And Trump is the man who can form a coalition of the working class, which will include, as we're starting to see, many blacks and Hispanics.  This could leave the Democrats mainly with a diminished minority base, kooky feminists, hardcore leftists, radical environmentalists, alienated union bosses, and the elite of the coasts.  Simply put, the Republicans cannot prevail without Trump.

There's not much of a chance of the Democrats taking control on the Senate in November.  It looks favorable for Republicans to add to their majority by three seats or maybe more.  My concern is in 2020.  That's when 33 seats will be up for grabs.  Of them, 21 are Republican, and only 11 are held by Democrats.  This does not include the Mississippi and Minnesota seats, which are held by Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Tina Smith, respectively.  Both of these senators hold these seats due to vacancies and are up in 2018 and again in 2020 for a full six-year term.

In addition to the large number of seats to defend, age does not favor Republicans in 2020, either.  Of the 11 Democratic seats up in 2020, five are held by incumbents who will be at least 70 years old at the time of the election and thus worth watching for retirement signs: Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois, who will be 75; Ed Markey of Massachusetts, 74; Jack Reed of Rhode Island, 70; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, 73; and Tom Udall of New Mexico, 72.

Of the 21 Republican seats up in 2020, seven are held by senators who will be 70 or older at the time of that election: Sen. David Perdue of Georgia will be 70; Sen. Michael Enzi of Wyoming, 76; Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, 78; and Sen. James Risch of Idaho, 77.  Three will be octogenarians: Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee will be 80, while Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas will be 84, and Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma will be 85.

Here is one last depressing fact.  In 2022, twenty-two GOP seats are up to just 11 Democrat ones.

Nothing is preordained, and the future is not guaranteed to anyone.  So it would be foolish to make any predictions of the makeup of the Senate after the 2020 election, not to mention 2022.

Still, it would be less than prudent to ignore the headwinds that are coming and consider how best to prepare.  Three things stand out to even a layman.

First, the GOP must address the age problem.  Republicans need to start thinking now, if they haven't done so already, about how best to position young candidates to replace the geriatrics on the team.  Some Republican elder statesmen can be reasoned with; others will have to be pushed.

Second, the Republicans must make hay while the sun shines.  Right now, they have the wind to their backs regarding the Senate.  The GOP needs to put the pedal to the metal and increase its majority as much as possible.  No seat is insignificant, nor is any election.

Third and most importantly, the GOP needs to coalesce behind President Trump, the sooner the better.  With ankle-biters like John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker out of the Senate, this should be easier to accomplish.

Trump is the key.  He's the one who can expose the mainstream media as shills for the Democrats, thus discrediting much of the media's propaganda effort.  And Trump is the man who can form a coalition of the working class, which will include, as we're starting to see, many blacks and Hispanics.  This could leave the Democrats mainly with a diminished minority base, kooky feminists, hardcore leftists, radical environmentalists, alienated union bosses, and the elite of the coasts.  Simply put, the Republicans cannot prevail without Trump.