Keyser would have remembered the party

As of this moment, four of the five people Christine Blasey Ford says were at the party where she claims she was sexually assaulted have denied there ever being such a party.  Only Ford herself, also the only person not to speak under oath, says this party occurred, and only she says she was sexually assaulted.

The most recent witness, Leland Keyser, has no recollection of the party and has never met Kavanaugh.

This is compelling in that not only doesn't she have any reason to lie, but she's actually a lifelong friend of Blasey Ford and a staunch liberal who doesn't want Kavanaugh on the court.

Ford's lawyer responded to this bombshell, saying:

It's not surprising that Ms. Keyser has no recollection of the evening as they did not discuss it.  It's also unremarkable that Ms. Keyser does not remember attending a specific gathering 30 years ago at which nothing of consequence happened to her[.]

It can be shown that this statement is not in fact logically plausible.

According to Ford, after she managed to escape from Kavanaugh, she fled to a bathroom, where she locked herself in.  At some unspecified later time, she left the party.

That means there are three options about how Ford and Keyser interacted after the alleged assault:

  1. Keyser encountered Ford locked in the bathroom and very upset.
  2. Keyser encountered a very upset Ford as she left.
  3. Keyser discovered that Ford had left after the fact.

Every one of these options involves memorable events, which would give Keyser a strong memory of the party.

In option one, Keyser would find her good friend locked in a bathroom and traumatized.  Furthermore, Ford, according to her own account, didn't tell anyone about the assault, which means that when Keyser asked about what the problem was, Ford wouldn't answer.

Given that Keyser was a good friend of Ford, the fact that Ford was distraught enough to lock herself in a bathroom and refuse to share the problem would be a pretty memorable event for Keyser, especially since Ford, according to her account and her lawyer's statement, didn't ever give Keyser an explanation.

The fact that Keyser would have presumably pursued the matter next time she saw her good friend Ford and have been rebuffed would also be a good reason for Keyser to remember the party.

In option two, Keyser would see her good friend rushing out of the house, visibly distraught.  But once again, according to Ford's account, Ford would provide no explanation to Keyser. 

Here, Keyser would certainly consider a good friend rushing out of a party while being clearly upset and unwilling to talk about it, then or later, a memorable event.

In option three, Keyser would suddenly find herself alone with three boys.  Finding out that her good friend left without even talking to her and refused to answer questions about it later would be good reason for Keyser to remember the party.

There is no scenario where Ford's actions, as she describes them, would not have created a memorable situation for her good friend Leland Keyser.

Hence, contrary to the lawyers' claim, there is every reason to believe that if Ford, Kavanaugh, Judge, PJ, and Keyser had been at a party together, Keyser would have remembered it.

You can read more of Tom's rants at his blog, Conversations about the obvious, and feel free to follow him on Twitter.

As of this moment, four of the five people Christine Blasey Ford says were at the party where she claims she was sexually assaulted have denied there ever being such a party.  Only Ford herself, also the only person not to speak under oath, says this party occurred, and only she says she was sexually assaulted.

The most recent witness, Leland Keyser, has no recollection of the party and has never met Kavanaugh.

This is compelling in that not only doesn't she have any reason to lie, but she's actually a lifelong friend of Blasey Ford and a staunch liberal who doesn't want Kavanaugh on the court.

Ford's lawyer responded to this bombshell, saying:

It's not surprising that Ms. Keyser has no recollection of the evening as they did not discuss it.  It's also unremarkable that Ms. Keyser does not remember attending a specific gathering 30 years ago at which nothing of consequence happened to her[.]

It can be shown that this statement is not in fact logically plausible.

According to Ford, after she managed to escape from Kavanaugh, she fled to a bathroom, where she locked herself in.  At some unspecified later time, she left the party.

That means there are three options about how Ford and Keyser interacted after the alleged assault:

  1. Keyser encountered Ford locked in the bathroom and very upset.
  2. Keyser encountered a very upset Ford as she left.
  3. Keyser discovered that Ford had left after the fact.

Every one of these options involves memorable events, which would give Keyser a strong memory of the party.

In option one, Keyser would find her good friend locked in a bathroom and traumatized.  Furthermore, Ford, according to her own account, didn't tell anyone about the assault, which means that when Keyser asked about what the problem was, Ford wouldn't answer.

Given that Keyser was a good friend of Ford, the fact that Ford was distraught enough to lock herself in a bathroom and refuse to share the problem would be a pretty memorable event for Keyser, especially since Ford, according to her account and her lawyer's statement, didn't ever give Keyser an explanation.

The fact that Keyser would have presumably pursued the matter next time she saw her good friend Ford and have been rebuffed would also be a good reason for Keyser to remember the party.

In option two, Keyser would see her good friend rushing out of the house, visibly distraught.  But once again, according to Ford's account, Ford would provide no explanation to Keyser. 

Here, Keyser would certainly consider a good friend rushing out of a party while being clearly upset and unwilling to talk about it, then or later, a memorable event.

In option three, Keyser would suddenly find herself alone with three boys.  Finding out that her good friend left without even talking to her and refused to answer questions about it later would be good reason for Keyser to remember the party.

There is no scenario where Ford's actions, as she describes them, would not have created a memorable situation for her good friend Leland Keyser.

Hence, contrary to the lawyers' claim, there is every reason to believe that if Ford, Kavanaugh, Judge, PJ, and Keyser had been at a party together, Keyser would have remembered it.

You can read more of Tom's rants at his blog, Conversations about the obvious, and feel free to follow him on Twitter.