Reports of the death of the GOP congressional majorities are greatly exaggerated

Two hopeful signs, amidst a tidal wave of media predictions of doom for the Republican congressional majorities next November, have received little notice this past week. I think it is obvious that the 90% of the media operating as adjuncts of the Democratic Party intend to discourage Republicans so deeply that they do not turn out and vote. With the blood lust toward President Trump reaching fevered levels, we are supposed to accept as inevitable the predictions of numerous talking heads that impeachment is around the corner over… a possible campaign finance violation.  Or maybe the media reprise of the “Al Capone’s Vault” frenzy over the alleged buried National Enquirer stories of Trump scandals supposedly lurking in the safe of David Pecker, CEO of the Enquirer’s parent.

Republicans are doomed! That’s the media’s story, and they’re sticking to it.

But two bits of data say otherwise.

Rasmussen Reports published its latest poll on Wednesday, garnering little attention:

 

For the first time in months, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 44% would now opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 48% to 41% lead on the generic ballot.

Despite Rasmussen coming closer than anyone else in the polling biz to the 2016 presidential election, Rasmussen’s methodology is often criticized.  Fair enough: I have always been a skeptic about the accuracy of polling. But this second data point is based on actual voting behavior, and comes from The Tampa Bay Times, which is not exactly a Republican rag. Three days ago, it reported:

Nearly 1.4 million Floridians have already voted in next Tuesday's primary. (snip)

Republicans have strong leads over Democrats in both voting by mail and in early voting. Statewide, Republicans account for 47 percent of all votes, and Democrats 42 percent.

What? GOP voters are turning out at a rate five percentage points greater than Democrats? But I thought all the enthusiasm was supposed to be on the left.

In an AP report updated less than an hour ago, we learn that since last Thursday, another 200,000 Floridians have voted in early voting.

Sunday is the last day to cast an in-person early vote before Tuesday's primary election, a day when many churches hold "souls to the polls" voting drives.

Heading into the weekend, more than 1.6 million ballots had already been cast in the election. That's already surpassed 2014 totals, when 1.2 million people cast primary ballots before Election Day.

I believe that a lot of big political news lies ahead before the November ballot. Both sides will pull out all the stops. And I include Robert Mueller and his team of Hillary supporters in the reckoning of Democrat, Trump-hating forces. Whether or not the Sessions Department of Justice has any surprised for the Hillary campaign coming out of the work of US Attorney John Huber and the grand jury in Little Rock alleged to be working on the Clinton Foundation, remains to be seen.

But one thing we do know: The media is going to do everything possible to discourage Republicans from voting.

Two hopeful signs, amidst a tidal wave of media predictions of doom for the Republican congressional majorities next November, have received little notice this past week. I think it is obvious that the 90% of the media operating as adjuncts of the Democratic Party intend to discourage Republicans so deeply that they do not turn out and vote. With the blood lust toward President Trump reaching fevered levels, we are supposed to accept as inevitable the predictions of numerous talking heads that impeachment is around the corner over… a possible campaign finance violation.  Or maybe the media reprise of the “Al Capone’s Vault” frenzy over the alleged buried National Enquirer stories of Trump scandals supposedly lurking in the safe of David Pecker, CEO of the Enquirer’s parent.

Republicans are doomed! That’s the media’s story, and they’re sticking to it.

But two bits of data say otherwise.

Rasmussen Reports published its latest poll on Wednesday, garnering little attention:

 

For the first time in months, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 44% would now opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 48% to 41% lead on the generic ballot.

Despite Rasmussen coming closer than anyone else in the polling biz to the 2016 presidential election, Rasmussen’s methodology is often criticized.  Fair enough: I have always been a skeptic about the accuracy of polling. But this second data point is based on actual voting behavior, and comes from The Tampa Bay Times, which is not exactly a Republican rag. Three days ago, it reported:

Nearly 1.4 million Floridians have already voted in next Tuesday's primary. (snip)

Republicans have strong leads over Democrats in both voting by mail and in early voting. Statewide, Republicans account for 47 percent of all votes, and Democrats 42 percent.

What? GOP voters are turning out at a rate five percentage points greater than Democrats? But I thought all the enthusiasm was supposed to be on the left.

In an AP report updated less than an hour ago, we learn that since last Thursday, another 200,000 Floridians have voted in early voting.

Sunday is the last day to cast an in-person early vote before Tuesday's primary election, a day when many churches hold "souls to the polls" voting drives.

Heading into the weekend, more than 1.6 million ballots had already been cast in the election. That's already surpassed 2014 totals, when 1.2 million people cast primary ballots before Election Day.

I believe that a lot of big political news lies ahead before the November ballot. Both sides will pull out all the stops. And I include Robert Mueller and his team of Hillary supporters in the reckoning of Democrat, Trump-hating forces. Whether or not the Sessions Department of Justice has any surprised for the Hillary campaign coming out of the work of US Attorney John Huber and the grand jury in Little Rock alleged to be working on the Clinton Foundation, remains to be seen.

But one thing we do know: The media is going to do everything possible to discourage Republicans from voting.