Will we get a better quality of illegal under Mexico's new president, AMLO?
The question sounds weird, but it's worth asking, given that Andrés Manuel López-Obrador, Mexico's newly elected president, has declared he considers emigrating illegally "a human right" and in the tradition of Mexico's political class. He likely intends to drive the more politically troublesome elements of Mexico's population northward.
Here's what he was saying ten days ago, as reported by The Daily Caller:
Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) declared mass immigration to the United States a "human right" for all North Americans during a speech Tuesday.
"And soon, very soon – after the victory of our movement – we will defend all the migrants in the American continent and all the migrants in the world," Obrador said, adding that immigrants "must leave their towns and find a life in the United States."
He then declared migration "a human right we will defend," eluniversal.com reports.
Who is likely to be the most troublesome? Not the illegals we see now – the Mexican nationals who sop up welfare benefits and serve Democratic Party interests in everything from larding up the electoral college count to bringing more federal funding to Democrat-run districts to actually voting illegally in our elections. Why is that? Because AMLO, as he is known, intends to bring those very benefits to Mexicans back home. Basically, his election signals a bid to grab back Mexico's underclass from the United States and shower them with benefits at home to keep himself popular. On the social services front, things really are bad over there. Last election day, I did visit Tijuana and went to slum, asking Mexicans who had "served" as illegals here what they were up against now that they were back home. Several told me they had to pay high fees to get their kids educated (or else no school for them), and pensions for the old were virtually nonexistent. There were also the usual complaints about drugs and corruption, but it was striking how weak Mexico's social services were.
AMLO, presumably, would enact these new giveaway programs, and to be fair, some are probably necessary. Cripes, making poor kids pay for school? What an awful system. There's also likely to be a lot of pie-in-the-sky pork-barreling; a lot of corruption, which always comes of such money-shoveling; and good times for the least-productive members of society. Result: Fewer reasons for Mexico's indigent classes to come here illegally.
But it would be a cost, as nervous investors are already noting.
Taxes are likely to skyrocket. Good jobs are likely to shrink. And the people who will be hurt from that? Mexico's middle class, the hardworking, educated Mexicans who have jobs, pay taxes, and aren't going to like AMLO's skyrocketing taxes as he insults them with claims that they are "the rich" and need to be taxed a little more.
How else is he going to pay for these handouts?
Such people are likely to think they have better prospects up north, and some may well come, many legally and some illegally. Socialist regimes are famous for driving out their middle classes, and in Mexico's case, with rising incomes, there are plenty of middle-class people who will consider it.
The Venezuela and Cuba examples show that first it's the middle class who flee, then the lower middle class, and then the poor, after their home country has run out of other people's money. Mexico, at the front of its new socialist administration, will likely have money from taxes and will drive out its middle classes first. The poor, meanwhile, will likely stay put, at least until the Other People's Money runs out.
Net result: Immigrants and aliens from Mexico (who are declining in numbers here already due to Mexico's own population declines and rising incomes) will be less likely to want welfare here and more likely to want opportunity here.
There's no doubt AMLO will drive people out of Mexico, based on his statements as well as the effects of his domestic policies. Will he like the result? Probably, because he will be pulling Mexico's underclass from here back to Mexico based on his promises of goodies, as well as driving Mexico's middle class north. Will Democrats like the result? Probably not, since AMLO will be stealing back their politically useful illegal immigrant base. And the rest of us? Well, we certainly could be getting new people here who are better equipped and able to succeed in the U.S. and quite possibly people of conservative values. It's worth keeping an eye on, because events can take unexpected twists and turns.