According to a top polling forecaster Larry Sabato, House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes is no longer in a "safe" seat for re-election.  He might just lose his seat to a Democrat named Andrew Janz.

According to The Hill:

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics moved Nunes's seat to "likely Republican" as his Democratic challenger, Fresno County Deputy District Attorney Andrew Janz, continues to have fundraising success.

Nunes, a staunch defender of President Trump, is still considered a favorite in the race, but the Crystal Ball notes that he will likely face a stronger challenge than expected[.]

Now, anything could happen, I suppose, but Sabato was wrong* in forecasting Donald Trump's victory.  With the press drumbeat about the supposed "great blue wave" next November out there, and the press touting Sabato, I am suspicious that this might just be psychological warfare to boost Nunes's opponent.

Start with Andrew Janz, who, far from being a Bernie Sanders-style firebrand standing in stark contrast to the conservative standard of Nunes, is actually a mealy-mouthed milquetoast.

The press sees strength in his candidacy, based on the fact that he has raised a lot of money.  Yeah, sure.

Let's start with the money. According to OpenSecrets, Janz has raised $1 million from contributors – impressive, yes.  Nunes, however, has raised $2.5 million.  Advantage: Nunes. And it's a big one.

Now let's look at Janz the candidate.  Who is he?  He's a guy who seems to have graduated from high school around 2002, then went to a local college, and an undistinguished law school, which would make him about 34 years old.  He says he's not a politician, but he was a big-time student council politician and was handpicked by Democrats to attend one of their leadership programs (read: politician schools), which rather raises questions about his sincerity.  Job-wise, he's a mere deputy district attorney, and initially comes off as mild-mannered and moderate, according to his slick campaign website, yet he has a bad habit of distorting and lying about his opponent.  As for his positions on issues, anything that generates controversy, he waffles on (pot, constitutional law, sanctuary cities, etc.), and his speeches are full of umms and evasions.  Student council, indeed.

His supposed moderateness echoes the packaged candidates Democrats have presented in other districts in California, such as one of the rich kids being put up for election for Rep. Darrell Issa's seat whom I wrote about here, and the broader profile of Democrats who have won seats held by Republicans the past two years' special elections.  Seems mildness is the flavor du jour among Democrats at campaign time.

In this regard, Janz is one of the cookie-cutter people.  More to the point, he's not a good candidate.  He speaks with little stage presence, he waffles and flip-flops, he often says he "has no idea," and the audiences he speaks before are far from a broad swathe of the public, they seem to be obvious hardcore hippie leftists, down to the Woody Guthrie lyrics on the townhall walls.

Andrew Janz on YouTube.

Can this guy defeat Nunes?  I question whether he has a chance, given his lack of charisma and his absent record.  Seriously, could he really stand up against the immensely successful, polished, and powerful Nunes?

Nunes has a distinguished record of investigating the Trump-collusion allegations and unearthing more information about what happened than anyone in the press ever did.  Nunes exposed the facts about this false story through his committee's bombshell report, finding no evidence of collusion but a whole lot of official and press misconduct.  As a result, the story that Trump colluded with the Russians to steal the election from Hillary Clinton is gone as an issue, and Nunes takes that credit. Naturally, a lot of Democrats are mad.

Nunes also has been an excellent congressman, focusing Washington on the water issue that has been choking the Central Valley, and standing up for the needs of farmers. He regularly going back to his district if for nothing else just to get away from the Beltway crowd.  A neglectful congressman he is not.

What I suspect with all this hype about Nunes losing his "safe" seat is a concentrated effort by radical leftists to target Nunes by building a narrative that he's a goner and hoping the momentum will build.

Don't expect the press stories to stop on this.  There are leftists out there who want to take down Nunes, and they will stop at nothing to claim they already have it in the bag.

*CORRECTION: An earlier version misstated Sabato's forecasting prowess.