Democrats bungling Virginia governor's race

The biggest off-year election race next November is the contest for Virginia's governorship, and Democrats thirsting for a repudiation of Trump and the Republicans at the polls are watching in dismay as their dreams start to evaporate.  A serious mistake in the propaganda efforts on behalf of Democrat Ralph Northam threatens to depress turnout among his most important base voters.

The Old Dominion is currently regarded as a purple state, capable of going either way in handing victory to a Democrat or a Republican.  But the trend has been for rapid population growth in the northern suburbs of D.C., where prosperity depends on a growing federal government, free to act as its bureaucrats see fit.  So any GOP effort to capture a statewide office must depend on motivating turnout on the part of the rest of the state and depressing turnout among Dems.

There is already evidence that enthusiasm for the Democrats' nominee is waning, while GOP voters are motivated by threats to the Second Amendment being pushed by Northam.  The most recent poll from Monmouth University hands a statistically insignificant one-percent lead to Ed Gillespie, the GOP candidate:

The campaign for governor of Virginia remains up for grabs, with Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam locked in a one point race. The Monmouth University Poll  finds the race becoming more regionally divided, with Gillespie widening the gap in Western Virginia and Northam picking up steam in Northern Virginia. Northam has a better net favorable rating, but Gillespie has built issue advantages in some key areas.

Currently, 48% of likely voters support Gillespie, the former national GOP party leader, and 47% support Northam, the Commonwealth's current lieutenant governor. Libertarian Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 3% are undecided. Last month, Northam had a 49% to 44% edge over Gillespie while the race was tied at 44% each in July.

"This has never been more than a five point race in Monmouth's polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing. We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Into this seesaw situation comes an unbelievable gross error.  Shaun Kenney of The Republican Standard (hat tip: Ace) noticed that the Northam campaign removed the picture of his black running mate on campaign literature.

Gee, where do you suppose they planned to distribute them?  Is there anything more offensive than someone pandering to your enemies and dissing you in the process?  All the while hoping that you will not notice, because the incriminating evidence is being sent out hundreds of miles from your turf?

Face it: In swing districts, when black turnout is high, Democrats win.  When black turnout is low, they lose.

This is a pretty big deal now that it's been publicized, given how important black turnout is for Northam https://t.co/gB3w35lRmE

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 18, 2017

The campaign ads write themselves for Gillespie.  There is an eager audience on black-oriented media for stories of betrayal by white politicians of all parties.  Watch the black turnout in Virginia. 

The biggest off-year election race next November is the contest for Virginia's governorship, and Democrats thirsting for a repudiation of Trump and the Republicans at the polls are watching in dismay as their dreams start to evaporate.  A serious mistake in the propaganda efforts on behalf of Democrat Ralph Northam threatens to depress turnout among his most important base voters.

The Old Dominion is currently regarded as a purple state, capable of going either way in handing victory to a Democrat or a Republican.  But the trend has been for rapid population growth in the northern suburbs of D.C., where prosperity depends on a growing federal government, free to act as its bureaucrats see fit.  So any GOP effort to capture a statewide office must depend on motivating turnout on the part of the rest of the state and depressing turnout among Dems.

There is already evidence that enthusiasm for the Democrats' nominee is waning, while GOP voters are motivated by threats to the Second Amendment being pushed by Northam.  The most recent poll from Monmouth University hands a statistically insignificant one-percent lead to Ed Gillespie, the GOP candidate:

The campaign for governor of Virginia remains up for grabs, with Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam locked in a one point race. The Monmouth University Poll  finds the race becoming more regionally divided, with Gillespie widening the gap in Western Virginia and Northam picking up steam in Northern Virginia. Northam has a better net favorable rating, but Gillespie has built issue advantages in some key areas.

Currently, 48% of likely voters support Gillespie, the former national GOP party leader, and 47% support Northam, the Commonwealth's current lieutenant governor. Libertarian Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 3% are undecided. Last month, Northam had a 49% to 44% edge over Gillespie while the race was tied at 44% each in July.

"This has never been more than a five point race in Monmouth's polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing. We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Into this seesaw situation comes an unbelievable gross error.  Shaun Kenney of The Republican Standard (hat tip: Ace) noticed that the Northam campaign removed the picture of his black running mate on campaign literature.

Gee, where do you suppose they planned to distribute them?  Is there anything more offensive than someone pandering to your enemies and dissing you in the process?  All the while hoping that you will not notice, because the incriminating evidence is being sent out hundreds of miles from your turf?

Face it: In swing districts, when black turnout is high, Democrats win.  When black turnout is low, they lose.

This is a pretty big deal now that it's been publicized, given how important black turnout is for Northam https://t.co/gB3w35lRmE

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 18, 2017

The campaign ads write themselves for Gillespie.  There is an eager audience on black-oriented media for stories of betrayal by white politicians of all parties.  Watch the black turnout in Virginia.