Down ballot may be OK

This poll matches my thoughts on the shape of the election.  Voters may dislike Clinton a bit less than they dislike Trump, but they aren't about to give her a mandate in the form of Democrat control of Congress.

In a nationwide USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, a third of Clinton's supporters, 32%, say they are "very likely" to split their votes, and another 20% say they are "somewhat" likely. Twenty percent say they are "not very likely" to split the ticket, and 23% say they'll vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.

In contrast, a majority of Donald Trump supporters say they probably or definitely will vote only for Republicans. A third, 33%, say they plan to vote a straight GOP ticket up and down the ballot, and another 20% say they are "not very likely" to vote for Democratic candidates for other offices.

In 1992, Bill Clinton was almost as mistrusted as his wife is today.  Despite Clinton’s impressive victory in terms of electoral votes, 270 to 168, the Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives and lost only one seat in the U.S. Senate.  Note that Bill Clinton's so-called landslide victory saw him earn only 43% of the popular vote.  Since both major party candidates have sky-high negatives, and with upwards of six names on the presidential ballot in some states, 2016 could also see a landslide Electoral College victory in which the winner earns only 43% of the popular vote.

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