The Battle of North Carolina

It's a PPP poll, and those always skew Democrat.  Plus Hillary's 43%-to-41% lead is within the margin of error.  Cross tabs can be found here.

That said, I suspect that this poll may be close to what is happening in North Carolina based on two data points.  First, PPP asked whom respondents voted for in 2012.  While the answers show Obama with a 2%-point edge while in fact Romney narrowly won the state, a percentage of loosely affiliated voters are known to falsely remember that they voted for the current office holder.  Thus, the partisan mix in the poll may be fairly close to that in the electorate.

Second, this poll tracks with the results of the North Carolina presidential primary, below, as well as with other recent polls.  The national polling trend has been that Clinton's support has slipped since the end of primary season, while Trump's has not grown.  In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters can choose which partisan primary to vote in.  Here are the presidential primary results from March 15.

Votes cast in Republican primary

1,149,530

Trump's winning percentage

40.2

Votes cast in Democrat primary

1,142,916

Clinton's winning percentage

54.5

I have been polled by PPP several times.  They often ask questions that seem designed to become the basis for future negative ads against the Republican candidate.  This poll did the same, as it included questions about Trump's income tax returns, voters’ opinions of Vladimir Putin, rigged elections, and if the respondents believe that Hillary Clinton is the devil. 

Since the 2000 census, North Carolina has seen a huge influx of people from other states.  Many of them are well educated and upwardly mobile.  This has changed the politics of the state.  Indeed, with newcomers seeming to dominate state politics, there is some local resentment.  (The last two governors and four of the last five U.S. senators were not born in North Carolina.) 

I expect the Democrats to use the results of this poll to attempt to widen the divide between conventional economic conservatives and those with more populist leanings among potential Republican voters.

It's a PPP poll, and those always skew Democrat.  Plus Hillary's 43%-to-41% lead is within the margin of error.  Cross tabs can be found here.

That said, I suspect that this poll may be close to what is happening in North Carolina based on two data points.  First, PPP asked whom respondents voted for in 2012.  While the answers show Obama with a 2%-point edge while in fact Romney narrowly won the state, a percentage of loosely affiliated voters are known to falsely remember that they voted for the current office holder.  Thus, the partisan mix in the poll may be fairly close to that in the electorate.

Second, this poll tracks with the results of the North Carolina presidential primary, below, as well as with other recent polls.  The national polling trend has been that Clinton's support has slipped since the end of primary season, while Trump's has not grown.  In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters can choose which partisan primary to vote in.  Here are the presidential primary results from March 15.

Votes cast in Republican primary

1,149,530

Trump's winning percentage

40.2

Votes cast in Democrat primary

1,142,916

Clinton's winning percentage

54.5

I have been polled by PPP several times.  They often ask questions that seem designed to become the basis for future negative ads against the Republican candidate.  This poll did the same, as it included questions about Trump's income tax returns, voters’ opinions of Vladimir Putin, rigged elections, and if the respondents believe that Hillary Clinton is the devil. 

Since the 2000 census, North Carolina has seen a huge influx of people from other states.  Many of them are well educated and upwardly mobile.  This has changed the politics of the state.  Indeed, with newcomers seeming to dominate state politics, there is some local resentment.  (The last two governors and four of the last five U.S. senators were not born in North Carolina.) 

I expect the Democrats to use the results of this poll to attempt to widen the divide between conventional economic conservatives and those with more populist leanings among potential Republican voters.