A dose of realism from the Trump campaign

Many Trump supporters continue to insist that polls showing their candidate behind Hillary Clinton are skewed.  No doubt, Trump himself might have harbored his own suspicions about the polls.  That's why the candidate was scheduling rallies in deep blue states like New Jersey, Oregon, and Connecticut.

The arrival of Stephen Bannon on the scene may have been the dash of cold water to the face that the Trump campaign needed.  It appears that Mr. Bannon does not believe in skewed polls.  The candidate has canceled rallies in Nevada, Oregon, and Colorado this month, although he will still attend fundraisers in those states.

USA Today:

Trump was originally scheduled to make a speech on immigration in Denver on Thursday, but according to The Denver Post the speech has been postponed. The campaign said that his speech was "still being modified." Trump will, however, attend a fundraiser in Aspen, according to the Post.

Nevada’s KTNV also reported Monday that Trump’s Friday rally in Las Vegas was canceled, but his fundraiser in Lake Tahoe the same day is still on. According to KTNV, the campaign did not give a reason for the rally cancellation. He is expected to participate in a roundtable in Las Vegas, possibly on immigration.

Both Colorado and Nevada are battleground states where Hillary Clinton leads in recent polling. However, a Suffolk University poll last week had her lead within the margin of errorin Nevada.

Both a rally and fundraiser in Portland, Ore., scheduled for Aug. 31 were canceled, according to Oregon Public Broadcasting. The Trump campaign cited the Republican nominee’s trip to Louisiana last Friday as the reason his calendar has been changed, according to OPB.

Oregon is a reliably blue state, and critics questioned why Trump was even spending time there in the first place when he needs to make up ground in battleground states.

Oregon hasn't gone red since the Reagan years, and Trump is far behind at this point in Colorado.  He is competitive in Nevada, but the state's 6 electoral votes aren't as important as big-state targets like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where resources are better spent.

Trump has limited resources, and he's running out of time.  He must do two things to regain his advantage:

1. Shore up his base of support in states like Georgia and Utah, where Clinton is running neck and neck with him.

2. Put himself in a position to win both Ohio and Florida.  For him to have a chance, those two states are critical.

The bottom line is that Trump is behind in every single target state except Iowa, which is a dead heat.  I disagree with the notion that he has no chance to win.  But by any metric you want to use, the candidate is behind and needs a rally to get back in the race.

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