Corrected Gravis poll has Trump well out in front of Clinton at national level
After an onslaught of highly liberal biased polls against Donald Trump during the past week, it was refreshing to see an only modestly biased poll – in relative terms – released on Saturday by Gravis.
In its biased form, the poll shows Trump only 2% behind Hillary Clinton in the head-to-head matchup, far below the ridiculously large Clinton leads of up to 12% that Bloomberg and other leftist media outlets have been oozing of late.
But once we correct for biases in this Gravis poll, Trump is undoubtedly now well out in front of Clinton.
In the poll's demographics, 40% of respondents said they were Democrats compared to just 33% who were Republicans. This 7% Democrat advantage is almost assuredly about 6% above where it should be – meaning Clinton's narrow 2% lead should likely be upward of at least a 4% deficit behind Trump.
Further evidence of liberal bias in the poll comes from questions about Tea Party support, abortion, religious affiliation, and education.
Just 11% of those surveyed said they were members of the Tea Party. This value should be about 17%, suggesting – as with the party affiliation – about a 6% liberal bias.
The poll also shows a 17% advantage to pro-choice over pro-life, well above the known 6% spread in favor of pro-choice. This signifies a major liberal bias in the demographics, as the pro-choice side has not had an advantage larger than 10% since the 1990s.
When it comes to religious affiliation, the poll oversampled Muslims (2% versus 1%) and Catholics (25% versus less than 21%) and looks to have massively undersampled Evangelicals (10% versus 25%), resulting in more liberal bias. Evangelicals will vote dominantly for Trump, whereas Muslims and many Catholics are likely to lean toward Clinton.
A full 50% of the poll's respondents had a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to 34% in reality, introducing more liberal bias.
Based on the full range of liberal biases present, a reasonable estimate of Trump's actual lead over Clinton is in the range of at least 5% once the polling data is corrected.