The real story of Super Tuesday: GOP turnout big and rising, Dem turnout small and falling
The story that most of the media wishes to ignore, the one that could determine the outcome of the November election, is the high level of voting in the GOP contests and the correspondingly low Democrat turnout. The preliminary raw vote totals from Super Tuesday seem to continue the trend that was already evident: we are witnessing “The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Party,” whose support among white voters is declining rapidly (down 44% in South Carolina), while black and other minority turnout is not even rising for them.
Stephen Dinan reports in the Washington Times that the trend continued yesterday:
Virginia’s GOP primary tallied more than 1 million votes, shattering the record set in 2000 by more than 50 percent. Democrats, meanwhile, were 200,000 votes shy of their own record, set in the contested 2008 primary.
In Tennessee, GOP turnout crossed the 800,000-vote mark, leapfrogging the previous record by nearly 50 percent.
Records were also likely to be set in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Massachusetts.
Democrats, though, were struggling, seeing turnout drop by massive levels in all of their races Tuesday night. That included Vermont and Arkansas, where their two candidates had home-state advantages of sorts, yet still couldn’t match the enthusiasm of the 2008 contest.
It is probably true that, as he claims, Donald Trump is drawing new voters to the Republican contests. Whether those voters would stick with the GOP if he does not attain the nomination is questionable. And there are backers of other contenders, including office holders and former office holders like Ben Sasse and Christie Todd Whitman, who vow they will not vote Trump if he is the nominee.
But will the young voters turning out for the Democrat contests to vote for Sanders be inspired to support Hillary? They are as angry at the establishment and D.C. insiders as Trump’s fans. And few people embody insider and D.C. better than Hillary.
As matters stand today, and contrary to polling and most pundits, the advantage would seem to be with the GOP. This only makes sense, given the disastrous presidency of Barack Obama.