In Michigan, 70% of GOP primary voters support ban on Muslims

Polling data out of Michigan continues to overwhelmingly support a win by Donald Trump in the state's upcoming primary.

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 2-4 shows Trump in the lead among GOP primary voters, with 39% support, well ahead of Ted Cruz (24%), Marco Rubio (16%), and John Kasich (15%).

Trump is seen as the least establishment candidate, with just 30% saying that he would ultimately do what big donors want if he is elected president, compared with much higher views of likely pandering to big donors for Cruz (47%), Kasich (48%), and Rubio (66%).

Trade restrictions with China are a priority for Michigan's GOP base.  Almost 60% of those asked want more trade restrictions with the communist state, versus just 7% who would like fewer restrictions and only 18% who prefer the trade relationship to be kept as is.

Trump carries the greatest personal credibility among voters.  Half (50%) of the poll's respondents said he is the candidate most able to bring some needed change, compared to 22% for Cruz, 17% for Kasich, and 11% for Rubio.

Voters also think Trump is most prepared to be president (31%), compared to 30% for Kasich, 28% for Cruz, and 10% for Rubio.

Trump (53%) is seen as most able to win in the general election among the GOP candidates, carrying a large lead over Cruz and Rubio at 19% each and Kasich at 8%.

Contrary to the narrative being spun by his opponents, Republican primary voters in Michigan see Trump as most focused on the issues (32%), ahead of Cruz (30%), Kasich (27%), and Rubio (11%), and they believe that Trump best understands the middle class (31%, tied with Kasich), compared to 21% for Cruz and 17% for Rubio.

In a vote of who is most likely to get things done, Trump (49%) won easily among the candidates (Cruz was second at 21%, followed by Kasich at 18% and Rubio at 11%).

Trump also wins by large margins on each of the major issues for GOP primary voters, garnering the highest percentage for doing the best on taxes (42%, ahead of Cruz at 26%), federal spending and budgets (44%, ahead of Cruz and Kasich tied at 25%), immigration (52%, ahead of Cruz at 23%), and trade policy (54%, ahead of Kasich at 19%).

A full 70% of the Republican survey group in Michigan support Trump's proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States.

Separate polling by NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll also shows a commanding lead for Trump (41%) in Michigan as the primary approaches, followed by Cruz (22%), Rubio (17%), and Kasich (13%) among likely GOP voters.

Over the past week, growing discrepancies have been seen between polling data and the primary results – generally favoring Cruz and hurting Trump – whereby Trump is not winning some states that the polling data was consistently showing he should (e.g., Oklahoma and Kansas) and winning others (e.g., Louisiana) by far smaller margins than the polling data suggested.  The likely cause of the disconnect is not a systematic error in polling data failing to register last-minute voting switches from Trump to Cruz, but instead a failure of Trump to mobilize his supporters to vote.  In contrast, it appears that Cruz has been very effective in many states at getting out his vote.

If this pattern persists and intensifies, Trump will face an increasingly difficult challenge of closing out what the polling data of potential voters suggests should be an easy trip to a GOP nomination victory far before the convention.