Could Trump beat Hillary head to head in New York state?

According to this column by Fred Dicker in the New York Post, there are some confidential polls of state legislative races in New York that show Donald Trump potentially defeating Hillary Clinton in the heavily Democratic state.

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

“There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign,’’ one of the state’s most prominent Democrats said.

Most of the polling didn’t address the possibility that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an independent, but some of it did — and found the former mayor took “significant’’ votes away from Clinton in heavily Democratic New York City and the surrounding suburbs, a source familiar with the data said.

The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was “surprisingly strong’’ in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

The polls found that Clinton often had higher negative ratings with voters than did the more controversial Trump, whose inflammatory pronouncements have often angered and even horrified many of his fellow Republicans.

“In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative,” one longtime Republican operative contended. “She’s more of a liability than many Democrats realized.”

Some of the polls also found a greater degree of intensity among Trump’s potential voters than among Clinton’s, a finding that mirrors the stronger GOP turnouts that have been registered in the presidential primaries.

Every four years, there are polls in deep blue states like New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania that show that the Republican candidate has a chance to win.  And every four years, the Democrats sweep those states.

All three of those states are ruinously expensive to run a presidential campaign in, and given the history of Democratic dominance, it would be a waste of money and resources to make a serious effort.  Those states are in play only in a Trump landslide – 8 to 10 points.

Still, Trump as favorite son has to count for something in New York, so when the leaves change colors, it might be time to revisit the New York race and decide if Trump's numbers are real or a mirage.