Prediction from NRO: Hillary will win
Writing at National Review Online (and speaking for herself, not the editorial board), Myra Adams offers “Five Reasons Why Hillary Wins in 2016.” It is worth examining her reasoning and looking not to dismiss it, but rather for means of countering the strengths she cites. Presidential politics are very challenging for the GOP these days, and demographic trends, spurred by immigration policy, do not favor conservatives.
Reason number one: “First Female President”
The Democrats discovered and brilliantly exploited the “historic first” strategy with Barack Obama, foisting a radical, inexperienced rookie senator on us. There are about four times more women than blacks, so the historic first strategy has an excellent chance of working again, and it is probably Hillary’s strongest card.
What to do? Well, Carly Fiorina as VP nominee seems like a pretty good counter-strategy. It is pretty clear she is hoping for exactly that role, and because of her two X chromosomes, she can go after Hillary in a way that no Y chromosome-impaired candidate could. Veep nominees historically have the role of attack dog, and Carly has shown herself very capable at this role. A female VP would also be a historic first, and allow women with doubts about Hillary a chance to strike a blow for women without subjecting the nation to a lying, devious, imperious, nasty, and sneaky woman like Hillary.
Reason number two: “The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy”
This is the commonplace analysis, that a “blue wall” of Democrat sure-thing victories gets any Dem nominee perilously close to victory in the Electoral College.
What to do? Fight like hell in states that are considered blue historically but that have seen some red victories. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, for example. And focus resources on Florida and Ohio.
Reason number three: “Obama’s Third Term”
This is Adams’s weakest point. She says that Obama is pretty popular for a 7-year president, but he is a liability that grows daily, with enemies of America taking advantage of his (and our) weakness. She also writes, “[W]hat she needs is Obama’s winning voter coalition of women, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, voters aged 18 to 44, voters with incomes under $50,000, and those belonging to a union.”
Blacks are not going to turn out for a rich white lady the way they did for Obama. Young people are disillusioned. And Asians increasingly are aware of their victimization at the hands of affirmative action policies of the Democrats.
Reason number four: “Bill Clinton’s Third Term”
Yes, Bill Clinton is enormously popular, but I am not sure that translates into support for Hillary. In terms of likability, he is everything she is not. And the SNL parody last Saturday raised the term “first dude” – and with it the specter of Bill Clinton shenanigans in the White House continuing. Does anyone want more interns seduced in our presidential residence?
Honestly and frankly, Bill Clinton looks unwell. I worry for his health, and I wonder what the stress of a campaign would do to him. He may be promising to stay out because of health reasons, but few people believe he will be able to restrain himself. If he were to die during the campaign, would the sympathy vote elect Hillary? Quite possibly. Let’s all pray for him.
Reason number five: “Republicans and the General-Election Curse”
This comes down to a demography argument:
The trouble is that older, whiter, richer male college graduates — the kind of voters who show up for midterm elections and vote Republican — are overwhelmed by the sheer number of female, younger, poorer, less educated, and less white voters who tend to flood the polls in presidential-election years. And, as I mentioned earlier, Clinton will target these same voter groups as she tries to assemble the coalition that gave Obama his two victories.
Yes, but whites, especially less educated whites, are abandoning the Democrats, seeing quite clearly that it the party is stacked against them. And as I mentioned, Hillary just doesn’t have the same appeal as Obama when it comes to turning out minorities.
It’s too early to order champagne but also too early to order sackcloth and ashes. We’ve got a fight on our hands.