Iran's nuke program: A deal from hell
The framework announced yesterday in Lausanne is the sort of agreement you would expect when one side is desperate for a deal and the other side knows it. President Obama has given away the store. There is a little lipstick on the pig, but even that is smeared and unappealing if the eyes linger but a microsecond.
The Washington Post editorial board, no hotbed of conservative Obama-haters:
THE “KEY parameters” for an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program released Thursday fall well short of the goals originally set by the Obama administration. None of Iran’s nuclear facilities — including the Fordow center buried under a mountain — will be closed. Not one of the country’s 19,000 centrifuges will be dismantled. Tehran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium will be “reduced” but not necessarily shipped out of the country. In effect, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will remain intact, though some of it will be mothballed for 10 years. When the accord lapses, the Islamic republic will instantly become a threshold nuclear state.
That’s a long way from the standard set by President Obama in 2012 when he declared that “the deal we’ll accept” with Iran “is that they end their nuclear program” and “abide by the U.N. resolutions that have been in place.” Those resolutions call for Iran to suspend the enrichment of uranium. Instead, under the agreement announced Thursday, enrichment will continue with 5,000 centrifuges for a decade, and all restraints on it will end in 15 years.
Fordow, which is hardened against aerial attack, is the key Omri Ceren, a close observer of the talks, explains why the terms of the agreement ensure Iran the capability to break-out of the agreement and enrich weapons-grade material beyond the ability of the West to do anything to stop them:
But instead of spinning uranium, the centrifuges would be spinning germanium or similar non-nuclear elements. That’s the administration’s talking point: that there will not be any “enrichment” going on at Fordow. The claim is – bluntly – false. Centrifuges spin isotopes into lighter and heavier elements, thereby “enriching” the material. That’s what they do. In fact that’s all they do. The administration has gone all-in on a talking point can be defeated by a Google search for “centrifuges enrich germanium.”… This isn’t a minor point. The concession has the potential to gut the whole deal: (snip)
The development of advanced centrifuges would give the Iranians a leg up if they decide to break out, and will put them instantly within a screw’s turn of a nuke when the deal expires.
[It] Leaves Iranian nuclear infrastructure running beyond the reach of the West – if the Iranians kick out inspectors and dare the world to respond, the West will have zero way to intervene. The Iranians will have a head start on enrichment, and a place to do it beyond the reach of Western weapons. The administration’s early pushback has been that the breakout time will still be a year, so they could in theory reimpose sanctions, but it takes more than a year for sanctions to take an economic toll. So: zero options to stop a breakout.
President Obama refers to the response of the West to any Iranian violations as a “snap back” of sanctions. But this is so misleading as to qualify for at least 3 Pinnochios. The Russians and Chinese, not to mention the EU countries, are all salivating over the prospect of lucrative deals with Iran, which has many years of pent-up demand form products only advanced infidel economies can produce, and these nations all face unemployment and growth problems for which Iranian purchases would be a salve. They are not to give up those sales because Iranians deny access to a site where hanky-panky is underway. The current sanctions took years to negotiate. Reimposition will also take years, And even the optimistic spin of the Obama faction admits a year is all that would be necessary to achieve a nuclear bomb.
Speaking of snapping, the framework does not provide for snap inspections. Only scheduled inspections are allowed, which give the Iranians time to dress up for the inquiries, and hide any evidence of cheating. The Iranians have a history of cheating, so we can count on it happening in the future, especially given the difficulty of reimposing the sanctions, even if the cheating is discovered.
As the New York Post editorializes: Get ready for a nuclear Iran. Which means, get ready for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, and then get ready for Armageddon, because that is what the mullahs seek. The deal from hell has every prospect of producing hell on earth.
President Obama’s incomprehensible lust for a deal, any deal, handed the advantage to Tehran, which gladly exploited it. Under sane American leadership concerned to protect the world from the threat of nuclear-armed mullahs, it would have been Iran, struggling with low oil prices and harmed by the sanctions, desperate to do a deal and willing to compromise. Obama didn’t just throw away that leverage, he handed it to Iran on a platter. Comparisons to Chamberlain at Munich are apt and frightening.