The problem with 'demographics' is that voters want results

Remember the one about demographics?  Remember how Democrats were going to naturally take over government from coast to coast because of inevitable "demographics."

Well, that demographics prediction looks a bit like a Twilight Zone in Spanish these days.

The problem with predictions is that things change, or the assumptions do not turn out to be true as Mr. Mann, my 8th-grade social studies teacher, used to say.

We definitely recommend Sean Trende's post to all of those pundits who bet their lunch money on the demographics theory:

The problem was twofold. 

First, in two-party systems, the other party always adapts: It figures out ways to counteract winning messages (e.g., Cory Gardner embracing over-the-counter birth control in Colorado), or utilizes emerging issues to help steal groups from the other coalition. Because governing inherently involves picking winners and losers, there are almost always groups for the out-party to steal. 

Second, progressive centrism was always going to be difficult to maintain as a dominant ideology.

There is another problem that the authors of the "inevitable demographics theory" did not consider: performance!    

People want parties to perform, especially if they give you the votes to win the election.

In 2008, and to a lesser extent in 2012, Hispanics voted for candidate Obama because he promised to do something about immigration.  The large Hispanic vote also gave Mr. Obama 60 votes in the U.S. Senate and a large majority in the House in 2008.  Nevertheless, President Obama did not deliver and that turned off many Hispanics in 2014.

Another example is young people, who gleefully screamed "yes we can" and now have to hear their their parents say "yes we can" take you back home because you can't find work.

Yes, there will be more Hispanics voting in the future.  However, there is no guarantee that they will vote Democrat, especially if Democrats do not improve their lives.

So it's time to update "the demographics" theory with the Obama addendum or the presidency that soured so many of "the demos."

P.S. You can hear my show (CantoTalk) or follow me on Twitter.

If you experience technical problems, please write to