What's Not Worked Still Isn't Working

Richard Baehr wrote an AT blog, "Pollsters join Democrats as big losers," on 5 Nov. 14:

On average, GOP candidates beat polling average by 5 points in close Senate races, and by 3 in close governors' races[.]

In another AT blog, Rick Moran features a quote by MSNBC “host Krystal Ball, a former failed Democratic congressional candidate” (emphasis mine):

[Ball] asked [Liberal MSNBC contributor Jimmy] Williams whether white Southerners should just be written off by the party, but Williams said NEVER[.]

The observations by Baehr and Moran set the stage for what has to be among the most telling results of this election.  The following tables, based upon exit polling, say it all:

Ethnic Group (% of voters)

Voted Democrat

Voted Republican

White (75%)

38%

60%

Black (12%)

89%

10%

Latino (8%)

62%

39%

 

Ideology (% of voters)

Voted Democrat

Voted Republican

Liberal (23%)

87%

11%

Moderate (40%)

53%

45%

Conservative (37%)

13%

85%

How much credence can we place in tables based upon polls?  According to Baehr, none.  But we must begin somewhere.  And they may be incorrect specifically, but polls do more or less accurately reflect the general national mood.

Republicans, just one quick look at these tables illustrates that what has been tried in the past isn't working.  The first table shows that blacks and Latinos still vote Democrat.  This article outlines what Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and the Republican Party are doing vis-à-vis Americans of Latino heritage.  And this article documents what the Republican party is doing vis-à-vis Americans of African heritage.  Same old, same old!

I agree with Williams: never write off any group.  But... Republicans, don't try to out-Democrat the Democrats.  Don't form national policy based upon what y'all think the Americans of African or Latino heritage want.  You'll never get the majority of their votes regardless of polices you may enact.  That message should by now be obvious.

And I agree with Baehr: never form national policy based upon specific poll results.  But that doesn't mean ignore polls completely. 

So where are we now?  What should we do?  Republicans, focus upon the second table.  Almost as many voters (37% vs. 40%) self-identified as conservative as moderate.  There is an opportunity.  Unify behind a conservative policy agenda.  Get rid of RINOs.  Try to grow the 37% figure. 

But at the same time, follow Williams's advice.  Go after those Americans of African or Latino heritage in a conservative way.  They may just surprise you.

Christie, Paul, Walker, Republican {arty, are y'all watching?  We are watching what y'all do.

Richard Baehr wrote an AT blog, "Pollsters join Democrats as big losers," on 5 Nov. 14:

On average, GOP candidates beat polling average by 5 points in close Senate races, and by 3 in close governors' races[.]

In another AT blog, Rick Moran features a quote by MSNBC “host Krystal Ball, a former failed Democratic congressional candidate” (emphasis mine):

[Ball] asked [Liberal MSNBC contributor Jimmy] Williams whether white Southerners should just be written off by the party, but Williams said NEVER[.]

The observations by Baehr and Moran set the stage for what has to be among the most telling results of this election.  The following tables, based upon exit polling, say it all:

Ethnic Group (% of voters)

Voted Democrat

Voted Republican

White (75%)

38%

60%

Black (12%)

89%

10%

Latino (8%)

62%

39%

 

Ideology (% of voters)

Voted Democrat

Voted Republican

Liberal (23%)

87%

11%

Moderate (40%)

53%

45%

Conservative (37%)

13%

85%

How much credence can we place in tables based upon polls?  According to Baehr, none.  But we must begin somewhere.  And they may be incorrect specifically, but polls do more or less accurately reflect the general national mood.

Republicans, just one quick look at these tables illustrates that what has been tried in the past isn't working.  The first table shows that blacks and Latinos still vote Democrat.  This article outlines what Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and the Republican Party are doing vis-à-vis Americans of Latino heritage.  And this article documents what the Republican party is doing vis-à-vis Americans of African heritage.  Same old, same old!

I agree with Williams: never write off any group.  But... Republicans, don't try to out-Democrat the Democrats.  Don't form national policy based upon what y'all think the Americans of African or Latino heritage want.  You'll never get the majority of their votes regardless of polices you may enact.  That message should by now be obvious.

And I agree with Baehr: never form national policy based upon specific poll results.  But that doesn't mean ignore polls completely. 

So where are we now?  What should we do?  Republicans, focus upon the second table.  Almost as many voters (37% vs. 40%) self-identified as conservative as moderate.  There is an opportunity.  Unify behind a conservative policy agenda.  Get rid of RINOs.  Try to grow the 37% figure. 

But at the same time, follow Williams's advice.  Go after those Americans of African or Latino heritage in a conservative way.  They may just surprise you.

Christie, Paul, Walker, Republican {arty, are y'all watching?  We are watching what y'all do.