The poll that could be signaling a wave
My friend Barry Casselman (The Prairie Editor) was on my show recently and reminded our listeners that a wave is not visible until the last 72 hours of the election. In other words, many pundits have been looking for the wave prematurely.
It starts as independents go one way or another, as Barry wrote:
Any kind of true wave, moderate or heavy, does not appear visible until either just before election day, or when the vote is counted.
Waves are almost always late-breaking.
He explained it further:
A true “wave,” in my opinion, would require many more undecided voters to vote Republican, and many Democrats to stay home.
A true wave would produce a net gain of 8-10 Republican senators, 11-15 Republican house members, and close to a draw in net new governors.
A “tsunami,” on the other hand, would bring in 11-15 new GOP senators, 16-25 new GOP house members, and the surprise of some net gains in GOP governors.
On Sunday, a new poll from Iowa shook up the pundits. It puts Ms. Ernst, the GOP candidate, up by 7. If this poll is correct, and The Des Moines Register is a serious source, then we may have felt the first "winds" of a major wave.
I would add that the latest poll shows that GOP candidates in Kentucky and Georgia have built leads over their opponents. Mr Cassidy in Louisiana is also running ahead of Senator Landreiu in their expected runoff contest next month.
The next sign of a wave will happen on election night in New Hampshire and North Carolina. Watch for an early projection for Mr. Brown in NH or Mr. Tillis in NC. The wave will move across the "fruited plains" quickly and ferociously after that.
I am not sure if there is a wave, but I feel a wind blowing.