Texas Update: Abbott Up 20 in a New Poll

As I suspected, AG Abbott is opening up a big lead against Sen. Davis, the Democrat candidate: 57-37%, or 20 points!

The poll is fascinating when you look at the internals:

AG Abbott leads among women (52-40%) and whites (70-25%) and is doing very well with Hispanics (43% to Davis 49%).    

He leads in "other ethnic" groups by 52-37%.  I'm not sure what that is or what percentage of the voting bloc they represent.    

I would argue that Miss Davis is underperforming with blacks at only 80%.  Her position on abortion could be hurting her with blacks in Texas.

This poll shows the biggest lead but is in line with others recently published: the RCP average is Abbott plus 14%.

As I've been saying, AG Abbott will win by about 15 points – a nice solid victory that reflects the state's conservative values.  Furthermore, it also points out what a weak opponent Senator Davis is.  It's hard to believe that Texas Democrats could not find a more centrist candidate who could appeal to suburban voters.

Last, but not least, a friend working in the "early election" stations told me that the GOP traffic has been very heavy so far.  It's unscientific but has been reliable in the past about voter intensity.

P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

As I suspected, AG Abbott is opening up a big lead against Sen. Davis, the Democrat candidate: 57-37%, or 20 points!

The poll is fascinating when you look at the internals:

AG Abbott leads among women (52-40%) and whites (70-25%) and is doing very well with Hispanics (43% to Davis 49%).    

He leads in "other ethnic" groups by 52-37%.  I'm not sure what that is or what percentage of the voting bloc they represent.    

I would argue that Miss Davis is underperforming with blacks at only 80%.  Her position on abortion could be hurting her with blacks in Texas.

This poll shows the biggest lead but is in line with others recently published: the RCP average is Abbott plus 14%.

As I've been saying, AG Abbott will win by about 15 points – a nice solid victory that reflects the state's conservative values.  Furthermore, it also points out what a weak opponent Senator Davis is.  It's hard to believe that Texas Democrats could not find a more centrist candidate who could appeal to suburban voters.

Last, but not least, a friend working in the "early election" stations told me that the GOP traffic has been very heavy so far.  It's unscientific but has been reliable in the past about voter intensity.

P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.