Poll: Hispanics won't save Dems from disaster

An interesting tidbit has emerged from yesterday's Washington Post/ABC poll that puts another nail in the coffin of the hopes of Democrats to hang on to the Senate.

By a two to one margin, Hispanics that expressed an opinion on the matter see a GOP takeover of the Senate as a "good thing." But will the Republicans draw the right inference from this?


On Tuesday, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll showed that fully half of Hispanics do not believe that it makes a difference who wins the Senate in the 2014 midterm elections. And those who care, the poll showed, heavily favored Republicans – twice as many Hispanics, in fact, thought it would be a positive if Republicans took over the Senate (30 percent) as if Democrats took over the Senate (15 percent). That’s because Hispanics think the economy stinks – 76 percent said they were negative about the economy. Overall, according to the poll, Hispanics favor Democrats over Republicans by a 44 percent to 27 percent margin.
Naturally, the Republican Party will take exactly the wrong message from this poll. Speaker of the House John Boehner said in September that immigration reform would be high on the list of priorities after the election. Party insiders are saying the same thing. The notion: if Republicans can show Hispanics that they care about immigration reform by passing a comprehensive bill, Obama will either sign it or he won’t; if he signs it, Republicans will be given the credit, and if he doesn’t, he will look as though he doesn’t care about Hispanics.
Boehner and company intuit that if Republicans can win a plurality of the Hispanic vote in 2014, and they then foist amnesty on the American people, they’ll be set to truly grab a large share of the Hispanic vote come 2016. This is also the logic of those pushing for a Jeb Bush presidential run – they posit that Jeb’s Hispanic wife and generally pro-amnesty position will make inroads in the Hispanic vote.
But that’s nonsense. Should Republicans push a comprehensive immigration reform bill after the 2014 elections, Obama will either sign it or he won’t; if he signs it, he will be given the credit for brokering a deal with intransigent Republicans thanks to the media, and if he doesn’t, Republicans will be blamed for not caving enough on immigration.

I don't think there's much to worry about as far as a GOP Congress passing immigration reform - at least, any reform bill that Obama would sign. If anything, the Congress is going to be more conservative in 2015. And if the GOP falls short in winning the Senate, we're back to square one and no immigration bills at all will be possible.

But that's for the future. Right now, it should be obvious to the Democrats that they will not be saved by a big turnout among Hispanics. That bodes well for a lot of candidates in big races where a depressed Hispanic vote will help secure victory.

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