New poll shows GOP failing to close the sale

Nine days from the mid term elections and a new poll shows that Republicans are close to realizing their goal of taking over the Senate, but that 5 key races show them barely ahead or tied.

An NBC/Marist poll of likely voters has Republicans with small, outright leads in Iowa, Colorado, and Arkansas and in a statistical tie in North Carolina and Kansas.

  • In Colorado’s Senate contest, Republican challenger Cory Gardner holds a one-point lead among likely voters over incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., 46 percent to 45 percent. Back in September’s NBC/Marist poll, Udall was ahead by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
  • In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst edges Democrat Bruce Braley by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Earlier this month, Ernst’s lead was two points, 46 percent to 44 percent.
  • In Kansas, independent Greg Orman has a one-point advantage over Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, 45 percent to 44 percent – down from Orman’s 10-point lead earlier this month in the NBC/Marist poll.
  • In Arkansas, Republican challenger Tom Cotton gets the support of 45 percent of likely voters, versus incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., at 43 percent. In September, Cotton’s lead was five points.
  • And in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., and GOP opponent Thom Tillis are tied at 43 percent each. That’s down from Hagan’s four-point lead earlier this month. Libertarian Sean Haugh gets 7 percent of the vote.

We'll have to wait on new polls from several key states, including Kentucky, where GOP Senator Mitch McConnell is battling for his political life, and Georgia, where the Republican candidate David Perdue is looking to hold off a stiff challenge from Democrat Michelle Nunn. Alaska and Louisiana are also close, with the Republican candidates enjoying small leads.

The news is better from South Dakota where GOP Senate candidate, Governor Mike Rounds has opened a double digit lead on his challenger Rick Weiland.

With the number of undecided voters dwindling, Republicans have precious little time to close the sale and give their candidates victory.


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