Looking like a Big Election Day for the GOP in Texas
Wendy Davis has winnowed Republican Greg Abbott’s lead to single digits in the governor’s race but has not attracted a majority of women voters.
With just five weeks left in the Texas governor’s race, a Texas Lyceum poll found that Abbott holds a nine-point lead, 49 percent to 40 percent. Abbott holds a statistical lead among women, 46 percent to 44 percent, according the survey. That’s within the poll’s margin of error, which means it is a statistical tie.
So AG Abbott is up 9 and up 2 with women. Senator Davis leads among Hispanics and blacks.
AG Abbott leads big with whites and has an edge with independents.
The Davis strategy is to win women and get a large turnout from blacks and Hispanics. So far, she has blacks and Hispanics, but women are split, as mentioned above.
Beyond numbers, my sense is that Mr. Abbott will do even better on election day. I believe that for two reasons:
1) The GOP is really motivated to vote, and to some extent that's a reaction to the abortion debate last year.
2) I don't see a lot of passion or excitement on the Democrat side. Pres. Obama is so unpopular here that even Democrats are not saying his name that often.
Texas will be solid red on election day.