Follow the Republican Money
The polls that most campaigns rely on are their own. When the Republicans announced they were lifting spending in 6 Senate races -- Colorado, Georgia, South Dakota, Iowa, New Hampshire and Alaska -- it was indicative of growing concerns about holding Georgia and winning South Dakota (Democrats have also boosted spending there in what was viewed for most of the campaign season as a likely GOP pickup). It also indicated that the small GOP leads in Iowa, Colorado and Alaska are vulnerable.
In Alaska, where Democrats have a strong ground game aimed at rural Alaskans and native Americans (15% of the population), the Republicans have countered with perhaps their most effective TV ad campaign.
The spending on New Hampshire reflects the most recent polls showing the race tightening, with Scott Brown down only 2 %. Today comes news that Republicans will add $6 million to the $3 million they planned to spend in North Carolina. This comes on the heels of two new polls showing Republican challenger Thom Tillis even, and today ahead by 1 point, in a race where Kay Hagan has had a 3-4 point lead for months.
What this means is that the GOP is now targeting ten pickup races: West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire. Mitt Romney won the first 6 by large margins, and North Carolina by 2%. He lost in the other 3 states by 5-6%. At the moment, the Republican leads in the last poll taken in 9 of these 10 states, all except New Hampshire.
On the other hand, the latest Georgia poll shows a tie, and Greg Orman, the fake independent, leads in the latest Kansas poll by 3%. If the Republicans can hold their vulnerable seats, and the Obama administration continues to self-destruct, November 4th might be a very good day for the Party