Kansas? My eye is on Iowa
Yes, I understand that Senator Roberts is in trouble in Kansas. However, I believe that he will eventually pull it out for one reason: his opponent is a Democrat! It won't be long before he has to define his so called "independence" and the fact that he's very likely vote to keep Sen Reid as Majority Leader.
So let me go out on a limb and predict that Kansas will stay with Sen. Roberts. I think that the voters will figure it out, or enough of them will to reelect Sen Roberts.
Not far from Kansas is Iowa and that may be the race that we're talking about the day after the election.
According to a new poll, Joni Ernst now leads in that race:
"The ground under Bruce Braley has shifted.
The Democratic U.S. Senate candidate is 6 points behind his GOP rival, Joni Ernst, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll of likely voters.
Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents.
"Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP's chances of taking the U.S. Senate," said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of "Sabato's Crystal Ball."
Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.
Still, the 6-point deficit isn't insurmountable with 37 days left until the Nov. 4 election, political analysts say. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.
Some of the vulnerabilities for Braley, a lawyer and eight-year congressman: He isn't winning in his home district, in northeast Iowa. Two-thirds of likely voters think it's a problem that he missed a large percentage of Veterans Affairs Committee meetings in the U.S. House. Fifty-nine percent think his role in crafting the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare, is a problem.
And he's suffering badly with rural voters. Only 15 percent support him compared with 58 percent for Ernst. One potential reason: Two-thirds of likely voters who live in the country are bothered by a remark he made about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley that's been perceived as besmirching farmers."
This is an interesting race because Ernst has shot right back on the "war on women" meme. She is not taking. It helps that she's a grandmother and Iraq War veteran.
Second, ObamaCare is a problem for 59% of voters according to the aforementioned poll.
Yes, a lot can happen between now and election day.
For me, move over Kansas. I've got my eye on Iowa!
P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.