How Super Bowl III taught us never to trust conventional wisdom

Every Super Bowl Sunday reminds me of a few things, especially arriving in the US not knowing a thing about football, and the problems with believing in conventional wisdom.  I learned about football in a few months watching Bart Starr hand off to Jim Taylor.  I learned about the pitfalls of conventional wisdom, too. 45 years ago, conventional wisdom had the Colts destroying the Jets in Super Bowl III. However, the Jets upset the Colts 16-7 and Joe Namath forced us to take the AFL seriously.    I've always thought of Super Bowl III whenever "experts" make predictions, such as Hillary Clinton is going to be nominated and win the next election. According to a recent poll, she has the biggest lead ever in pre-nomination history: "Hillary Rodham Clinton's 61-point edge over Joe Biden in new Washington Post-ABC News polling makes her the single biggest frontrunner for a Democratic presidential nomination in the history of the...(Read Full Post)