Polls Schmolls -- There's a Better Way to Predict Presidential Election Results

People have become increasingly skeptical and dissatisfied with major election polling -- and with good reason. All too often, polls no longer seem to reflect demographic reality or eventual election results. Recently, several excellent articles have been written evaluating the pros and cons of election polling and their questionable predictive ability. These articles examine various relevant issues; accuracy, demographic sampling versus voter demographics or political party affiliation, national versus state versus local polls and how they relate, or the relative merits of one polling company's proclamations versus another... The media just adores this very contentious issue -- reporting and debating the 'horse race' gives them endless fodder for the front page. However, while mucking around in the weeds, the forest is all too often ignored -- or perhaps just surrendered as something that goes without saying -- for the most part, polls which have become extremely numerous over the...(Read Full Post)