Biased Till the End

According to the latest (and I'm assuming last) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll on the all-important state of Ohio, Mitt Romney is toast. The poll of 971 likely voters, out today on Real Clear Politics, has Obama in the lead 51% to 45%. At least they are consistent. Including this poll, the last four NBC/WSJ/Marist polls on Ohio have Obama receiving 50% or 51% of the vote and Romney getting only 43% or 45% of the Ohio vote.

Of course, as one examines the internals of the poll, it is easy to see how Obama has such a lead. This latest poll gives Democrats a nine-point advantage over Republicans (38% to 29%). This exceeds the 2008 exit polling on D/R/I turnout which revealed a 39/31/30 result. So, yes, if Tuesday's turnout is like 2008, Obama will easily win Ohio. Does anyone in their right mind believe this will be the case?!

In 2010 the exit polls showed a D/R/I turnout of 36/37/28. If the actual turnout is closer to this, then Romney wins easily. The 2012 Ohio turnout will probably be somewhere in between the 2008 and 2010 results. What's more, poll after poll has Romney winning independents. Even with Ohio's (and the rest of the battleground states) turnout results being somewhere in between 2008 and 2010, if Romney wins independents by a significant margin (Obama won them in 2008 by 8 points), the race is over.