Obama will win the Spanish vote - the few that show up
We saw a pathetic turnout among Hispanics in the Texas Democrat primary. In fact, District 33 was created for the sole purpose of electing a Hispanic Democrat. It elected a black Democrat because Hispanics stayed home. Only 19,000 voted in the runoff.
Hispanic apathy is nationwide, as explained by Chuck Todd of NBC:
"And then let me give you this last one here, because this is, I think, the most important one. And that's Hispanics. The President's winning Hispanics by 50 points. He hit the 70% mark. However, look at this in terms of interest in the election. 59% now, it was 77%. What does that mean? President got 65%, I believe, of Hispanics four years ago.
So even though he's going to get more Hispanics, if less of them turn out, it's a net zero. And yet, you look at Republican enthusiasm, up, senior enthusiasm, up. It's a huge problem. And by the way, all of this, pre-debate."
I am not surprised and let me tell you why: First, Hispanics have been hit hard by the economic slowdown, i.e. 11% unemployment for much of the Obama presidency. Second, many Hispanics are really angry over immigration reform. They voted for the promise but Pres Obama did not call on a Dem majority to send him a bill.
Contrast that to Pres Bush or Sen McCain or Pres Reagan who granted amnesty in '86. I think that a lot of Hispanics are catching the drift that the Democrats are better at talking than actually making something happen.
Third, Pres Obama's anti-free trade rhetoric turned off a lot of Colombians & Mexicans who saw through the demagoguery. Free trade creates jobs in the Hispanic community because it allows many to use their country and language skills.
Fourth, there are probably 15,000 Hispanics serving in Afghanistan. I can not believe that their parents or spouses are happy with Pres Obama incoherent policy.
Yes, the big story of 2012 will be that Hispanics won't show up. People like me will show up.
The 2008 perfect storm won't come this year.