Is Obama's black support tanking?
Public Policy Polling, a Democrat-leaning organization is out with a new poll of blacks in North reporting that Mitt Romney would get 20% of the black vote in the Tar Heel State. Business Insider, in analyzing the poll, writes:
Obama received 95 percent of the support from African-Americans in North Carolina in the 2008 election, compared with just 5 percent for Republican nominee John McCain.
In PPP's May poll, Obama received 87 percent of the African-American vote to Romney's 11 percent.
All of Obama's numbers with African-Americans are sliding. His approval rating is down from 86 percent to 77 percent. Romney's favorability, meanwhile, has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent.
Jim Williams, a polling analyst at PPP, said it could be "statistical noise" that comes with a small sample (only about 200 African-Americans were surveyed). But he said it was not something the agency has "ever seen before."
Curiously, neither BI nor its expert mentioned Obama's Biden-triggered evolution on gay marriage as a factor in the decline of black support for the president. Evolution's a good thing, right? Could it be that black turnout might plummet if a sizable segment of the black community decided that gay marriage was a make-or-break issue for them? It would turn into an even deeper nightmare that I discussed yesterday, and that leads me to believe that pressure is building to get Obama off the ticket. Whether it will succeed or even becoime visible to the public are separate questions.
Rosslyn Smith writes:
I've have a niggling little worry about Obama pulling an LBJ for some months now. He's not having any fun these days. Obama won't want to leave as a loser so he'd bow out first, but he also won't want Hillary to win so he will leave in a chaotic scene. Narcissists always save the worst treatment for those on their own side whom they believe betrayed them. How to push Obama out of the way without alienating black voters will be a problem. Failure isn't a race but some blacks won't see it that way and even in the bluest of blue states the Democrats often need heavy turnout in the black community to win statewide.
I still suspect Bill Clinton might see 2016 as too late for Hillary. He knows his history, By 2016 there will be an entire generation of voters with little or no memory of his two terms in office. As much as Bill Clinton must be basking in his current approval ratings as an ex-president he probably has a hunch that the next generation is likely to view him as the President who blew the perfect opportunity in his second term to reform Social Security because he would rather be getting carnally gratified by an intern.
Younger people are starting to see that for over two decades now our political leaders have punted on the major issue of the day-entitlement reform and they blanch at the bills they are going to have to pay. Recent college graduates are likely to hold baby boomer politicians in the same low regard those who actually fought the Civil War held Presidents Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce and Buchanan for failing to deal with the looming secession crisis.
Lauri Regan emails what she calls "Happy Tuesday Headlines" from Drudge:
If Democrats see a disaster unfolding, it will certainly make for an interesting political season, even if I am dead wrong about anyone even thinking of finding a way to save themselves by dumping O.