Obama and the white vote

One should not lose sight of the forest for the trees. In 2004, George Bush won the white vote 58% to 41% over Jon Kerry. 

In 2008, Jon McCain won the white vote 55% to 43% over Barack Obama (so much for the white racism argument). 

In the 2010 elections for the U.S House, the GOP candidates won the white vote 60% to 37% over their Democratic opponents . 

If the 2010 margin for Republicans among white voters is repeated in 2012 or grows, Obama will lose. It is a certainty.  White voters will likely be about 73- 74% of the electorate in 2012, of which Jews will be 3-4% of the  73-74%.   Non-Jewish white voters matter far more to the outcome.

So too, do Hispanic voters, about 9% of the electorate, who broke 68% to 31% for Obama in 2008.   With a 44% approval rating among Hispanics, the question is not whether Obama's percentage share among Hispanic voters will drop, but by how much.  Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida are all states that are over 20% Hispanic,  in which even a modest shift in the Hispanic vote could be enough to shift the state from blue to red. 

My article on PJM this morning on the Jewish vote can be found here.