New Senate polls are all good for GOP
John Raese is ahead of Joe Manchin West Virginia by 2% in a new survey (his second lead in a poll in recent days). Richard Blumenthal's lead over Linda McMahon is down to 3% (Quinnipiac) to 5% (Rasmusssen) in two new polls in Connecticut.
On the other hand, Kentucky is tightening. Two new polls show the Senate race much closer. Rasmussen has Paul up 15, but that is stale. Another oddity: Obama's approval has dropped everywhere but Rasmussen. Over last 4 days, Rasmussen's approval number for Obama has been: 45, 47, 48, and today 50. The highest since April. Since Rasmussen has 3 day sample, there could be one very big day for Obama in the mix.
Most of the year, Nate Silver has argued that Rasmusssen's numbers were more negative for Obama and the Dems because he used a likely voter screen, not registered voters (which others switch to about now), and that he has had a "house " effect of a 3 or 4 point GOP lean. Now others have caught up with Rasmussen, and passed him. Silver has underestimated the wave all year, especially in states like Wisconsin and, West Virginia. Rasmussen's generic ballot edge to GOP has also dropped to 6. There may be 50 House races decided by 5% or less. This is slightly scary -- could be great day or a big disappointment on November 2nd.