As Illinois Democratic moderates go, so goes the nation?

How much trouble is Nancy Pelosi in as far as getting to the magic number of 216 on health care reform?

This much, according to Jim Geraghty at NRO's The Campaign Spot:

An Illinois Democrat switches from yes to no, is lobbied by the White House, and remains a "no."

And oh, by the way, this Democrat, Jerry Costello, represents a district that Obama won, 56 percent to 43 percent; Costello hasn't had less than 60 percent of the vote since 1998.

I'm starting to think Pelosi isn't going to get her 216. For starters, Obamacare backers seemed awfully excited about Kucinich's support, which I suspect a lot of us thought would eventually fall into place. Second, he's actually the least useful new supporter in terms of persuading the other waverers; "Approved by Dennis Kucinich" isn't a slogan that flies in the district of Baron Hill in Indiana or John Barrow in Georgia or Glenn Nye in Virginia.

We're still counting about two dozen holdouts and waverers and undecideds; this is after several weeks of all-out pressure from Obama, Pelosi, Hoyer and the others.

I'd like to say that the whole thing is unraveling for Obama-Pelosi, but I'm afraid that you can never count out the president of the United States - especially one who seems perfectly willing to exercise his influence to the full measure of his considerable powers. I expect there will be a few Democrats who are now "no's" to have a change of heart soon. The pressure Obama can bring is enormous and as I have mentioned previously, it takes a great deal of political courage to resist it.

God knows what he's offering behind closed doors, what he's threatening these members with. Apparently, at the present, it's not enough.

Hat Tip: Ed Lasky