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January 26, 2010
Representative Mike Pence has announced he will not challenge Indiana Senator Evan Bayh next November. I think it is a smart decision. The GOP would need to raise millions for Pence in an uphill fight.
Bayh has about 13 million in his war chest. There is a better chance for the GOP to recapture control of the House (where Pence is the #3 Republian) than for Pence to beat Bayh in indiana. One snapshot poll of 50o voters was not enough to convince Pence to run.
On the other hand, if former Governor Tommy Thompson runs in Wisconsin against Russ Feingold, or former Governor George Pataki runs for the Senate in New York, both these seats are winnable.
It is very good news that Harold Ford is likely to run against Kirsten Gillenbrand for the Democratic nomination in New York. Both of them will blow through many millions in the primary . If a Democrat has to win the seat, Ford is more moderate than Gillenbrand. An ideal scenario for the GOP would be for Gillenbrand to beat Ford in the Democratic primary, and Andrew Cuomo to beat Governor David Patterson for the Democratic nomination. Many blacks, upset by the losses of Governor David Paterson and Ford in the primaries, might stay home in November, and Pataki could beat Gillenbrand.