A year out, anti-incumbent tide is growing

A new Pew Research survey has some very grim news for incumbents; a definite "throw the rascals out" mood is overtaking the country, with the all important independent bloc leading the way:

About half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year, while 34% say that most members of Congress should be re-elected. Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.Support for congressional incumbents is particularly low among political independents. Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25% would like to see most members of Congress re-elected. Both measures are near all-time lows in Pew Research surveys.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 28-Nov. 8 among 2,000 Americans reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that voting intentions for next year's midterms are largely unchanged from August. Currently, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district or lean Democratic, while 42% would vote for the Republican or lean to the GOP candidate. In August, 45% favored the Democrat in their district and 44% favored the Republican.


This confirms what other polls, including Gallup, have discovered; the voters believe nothing is working, nothing is being done, and they're mad as hell about it.

That sentiment is only bound to get worse as unemployment continues to rise and the voters begin to realize just how bad a boondoggle national health insurance is. With independents abandoning the Democrats, the prospects for solid, even spectacular gains by Republicans in 2010 are becoming more realistic.