The battle for the Senate

According to Rasumessen, Senator Cornyn has opened up a 17 point lead in texas (it had been 4), almost killing the Dems' hopes of picking up 9 to gain a filibuster-proof 60 seats. Here's how the key Senate races look.

Dems are ahead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire. The GOP has a shot in two of these:

New Hampshire (7 point lead for Shaheen over Sununu) and

Colorado (6 point lead for Udall over Schaeffer).

The other two are lost for the GOP, I think.

Dems also ahead in Alaska. The GOP needs to replace Stevens, who if he wins (down 7 at the moment) will probably go to jail.

Toss up races

Two Democratic seats:

Louisiana- 3 point lead for Landrieu; and

New Jersey, 2 point lead for Lautenberg.

GOP held seats

Mississippi: Wicker even (I think this will turn for the GOP in the end).

Kentucky: varying polls, but here too, I think McConnell will hold on.

Maine: Susan Collins is up 10.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole is up 13 in

Minnesota- 3 point Coleman lead;

Oregon: 9 point Smith lead. 

Coleman and Smith are now ahead, but there will betough races for both since McCain is running poorly in both states:  down 13 in Minnesota, down 8 in Oregon. Both are a bit a bit closer than last month.