The debate on Jewish GOP voters continues
My second piece was directed at an article by Jennifer Siegel who writes for the Forward. Miss Siegel attacked the RJC poll in her most recent article on this subject for not interviewing unaffiliated Jewish voters and offered the National Exit Poll results as an alternative. In a short piece on Monday, Rosner applauded Miss Siegel for her good work on the RJC poll. But since Rosner concludes, as I do, that the National Exit Poll data is worthless, why does he not criticize Miss Siegel for falling back on this survey as an alternative?
In my first article I pointed out that the NJDC had attacked a 2002 survey of Jewish voting patterns for having too small a survey sample (253). But the NJDC quickly trumpeted the 2006 National Exit Poll results with only 200 Jews surveyed. I think hypocrisy is too kind to describe this pattern.
As for Miss Siegel, by the time she wrote her recent article, she had to be well aware of the criticism of the National Exit Poll data with regard to the reliability of the results for Jewish voters, given the tiny sample size (and its too small Jewish representation as a percentage of the national survey group). Yet she mentions none of this in her article. Instead, her article is a hit piece on the RJC sampling methodology for excluding unaffiliated Jews.
Rosner, I think, is putting the blinders on in terms of bias here. In fact, the good cheer with which he welcomed the Siegel article and the congratulations he offered her for her continued work on this (despite her continued touting of the National Exit Poll), and his calling the RJC survey a "hoax", might suggest a rooting interest himself in trashing the RJC results.
Mr. Rosner's data from the AJC further suggests that the voting pattern of Reform Jews might have been a good proxy for the unaffiliated Jews not included in the RJC survey, as I argued. By weighing the 46% of Jewish voters who are unaffiliated voters at the Reform Jews' voting pattern, the RJC result would show about 24-25% support for Republicans in 2006. Mr. Rosner says that in fact, he Republican support level might be even higher, given that unaffiliated Jews may be more conservative in their voting pattern than Reform Jews. The 24-25% support level for the GOP that I proffered in my second article based on the RJC poll results seems like a solid estimate in light of the new data Mr. Rosner has provided.