There is an expression, perhaps not relevant to this generation: “This is where I came in.”  In the pre-internet, pre-television before-time, movie theaters often ran a movie on a continuous loop all day.  You paid your dime and came in, maybe at the beginning, maybe halfway through, maybe at the end.  You just kept watching until it came around to “where you came in.”

Life is also often this way.  I came of age during the great inflation that started in the early seventies, which switched to hyper-inflation in the late seventies under President Jimmy Carter.  In those times, the Fed was pumping huge numbers of dollars into the financial system to maintain the illusion of economic growth, or at least stability.  The result was runaway inflation and a stagnant economy, allowing Carter to claim another first: “stagflation.”

When Ronald Reagan won the 1980 election, he, with the help of Fed chief Paul Volcker, set out to wring the inflation out of the economy.  This required an immediate and severe contraction of the money supply.  The short-term economic pain was great.  (Taking away a junkie’s heroin is never pleasant, nor are 17% mortgage rates.)  The 1982 midterms were a bloodbath for the GOP, but Reagan’s tough love worked.  The economy sputtered and coughed and then roared back to life, carrying Reagan to a 49-state landslide in the 1984 election, and it would have carried George Bush, Sr. through two terms if he hadn’t foolishly betrayed his party and the country and broken his “no new taxes” pledge.  But that is all “spilt milk under the bridge” now.

The reason Reagan’s task and economic recovery seem so seamless and easy now is that he had a lot more to work with.  The United States at that time still had the greatest and most diverse industrial, agricultural, natural resource extraction, and energy sectors in the world.   The factories, farms, mines, and gas and oil fields, and the skilled work force to operate them, were all still here — just dramatically underutilized.  By squeezing out the inflation and reducing the regulatory boot on the neck of the private-sector enterprise, Reagan was able to crank the economy up to eleven.  This was further aided by the fact there was no competition from China, South Korea, or any part of the world, save for Japan, which was taking a healthy bite out of the auto and consumer electronics industries.  How happy we would be if that were our only problem today.

Unfortunately, the de-industrialization of the United States over the past 30 years means there is no mass of factories either idled or running at half capacity, just waiting for someone to throw the switch.  Nothing in human history produced greater wealth for both the country and the people within it than industry — the act of taking raw materials and multiplying their value a hundredfold by turning them into a finished product.

That is why factories could afford to pay good wages.  And the work could be done mostly by people with only a high school education (a real one), using simply motor skills, dexterity, and the ability and desire to follow instructions.  This is almost always what creates middle-class nations.

That reality is gone now, and although we are determined to rebuild industry, that will take at least five to ten years’ effort to pay dividends.

So what must Trump do to help hold the House and Senate?

First, stop all the talk of the economy being “the best ever anywhere” or “taking off like a rocket.”  Most people right now feel that the economy is “not nearly so bad as it was.”  That is hardly a ringing endorsement.  And fair or unfair, time has run out on blaming Biden.

Second, the biggest hope is that Trump can bludgeon the Republican Congress into passing one more budget reconciliation (only 51 votes needed) early enough to affect the midterms.  This should include another round of tax cuts aimed at Americans making between $30,000 and $150,000, as well as true elimination of all tax and penalty on Social Security payments.  You should be able to continue to work full-time and receive your earned benefits with no penalty.  

If Trump wants to do a cash rebate giveaway, do not throw the money out wildly to “all Americans.”  Does that include Americans recently nationalized who probably should never have been admitted to the United States, and who spend their days doing everything they can to undermine the U.S.?  How about ensuring that the rebate goes to natural-born U.S. citizens who have paid federal taxes for the past five years?  It does not have to be that exactly, but it must be something that gets the money to his working-class base and no one else.  And please remember, much of that base is paid salary, so “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime” gimmicks do nothing for us.

Third, continue the deportations, but start going after large employers of illegal aliens.  You know exactly who they are and where they are.  Yes, a certain number of meat-packing plants will close temporarily until they hire Americans at double what they were paying.  And sorry, but suspend all issuance of H1B visas and sunset all existing H1B visas.  American companies have shown time and again they always and only use H1B visas to undercut American workers.  Massive deregulation is needed at the EEOC to free businesses to hire the best without fear of government reprisal.

Fourth, the Lord sayeth, “Vengeance is mine,” but the Lord works through human action.  The base needs to see serious justice against those who violated the law trying to destroy Trump, and by extension them.  All the mealy-mouthed indictments filed in the District of Columbia are going nowhere.  We need real convictions and real punishment now.  It would seem to me that a certain Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman might have committed some form of treason against the commander-in-chief.  This would open the possibility of a recalling to duty followed by a swift court-martial on treason charges.  Who knows — the evidence found might even drag in his brother Eugene.

Fifth, how about fewer pictures of the President kissing the robes of Saudi princes?  We are not impressed by this.

And about those Saudi princes and others of their ilk promising “trillion-dollar investments” in the United States — call me skeptical, but I do not see them building factories and hiring Americans to work at and manage them.  More likely, I see them grabbing up already existing assets such as housing and real estate, prime farmland, and perhaps utilities or even toll roads.  Rather than economic growth, we will get more price inflation adding to the affordability crisis while turning our future over to those who bear us no good will, and all the while, they will be demanding special treatment for themselves and their tens of thousands of relatives.

If all these things are done quickly and with heart, the chances of holding the House go up to 50/50, with Trump’s personal campaigning possibly tipping the balance.  Otherwise, it will be “slow exhaustion and grim retreat, for a wasted hope and a sure defeat.”