The Republican Party Is Not Prepared for the 2024 Election
There is a growing consensus among conservatives and the vast majority of Republican voters that the 2024 election is a watershed moment for the United States. The dire reality of another four years of a Marxist-dominated Democrat Party in total control is beginning to increasingly come into focus.
However, the Republican Party hierarchy appears unconcerned, as exemplified by their near total lack of urgency regarding the need to offset voting manipulation by the Democrats and a lack of understanding of 2024 political demographics. Is the Republican Party hierarchy serious about winning the White House and both Houses of Congress?
In 2024 there will be approximately 237 million eligible voters, or 72% of the overall population, who are U.S. citizens, meet state residency requirements, and turn 18 before election day. Of that number it is estimated that 170 million will be registered to vote.
The average turnout among eligible voters in the 25 presidential elections from 1920 to 2016 is 58.8%. In the 2016 election, 137 million or 59% of eligible voters voted. By comparison, in 2020 156 million or 67% of eligible voters supposedly cast ballots.
This was the highest percentage since the presidential election of 1900, when the overall population was one-fifth of the current level and less than 30% of the population were eligible voters, as women could not vote.
Which turnout will it be in 2024? If the 2016 turnout is repeated, approximately 146 million votes will be cast. If the 2020 results are recorded again, approximately 158 million votes will be cast. A difference of 12 million votes, which will determine the outcome of the election.
The Republican National Committee (RNC), beyond issuing the usual fatuous press releases and reports about what they are going to do, has done nothing of substance on the ground to offset the Democrat’s determination to repeat their success of 2020.
In an effort to do what they can, individuals such as Scott Presler and his PAC have been on the ground in the various battleground states not only registering voters but instructing and recruiting volunteers to promote early voting, mail-in voting and to ballot harvest where legal.
However, instead of supporting and coordinating with Presler and various other get-out-the-vote organizations such as Turning Point USA, the RNC has deliberately ignored them and criticized their emphasis on direct contact with potential voters in their efforts to get-out-the-vote.
R.C. Maxwell writing at Red State:
John Seaton, an RNC-aligned consultant with ties to former Senator John McCain, perplexingly said he “cannot fathom” that much money being spent on get-out-the-vote efforts. “There’s not even enough doors” to knock on, said Seaton in an Associated Press article that labeled him as an “expert”.
Maxwell further points out that Ronna McDaniel and the RNC proudly announced to the world that the RNC has begun a “Bank Your Vote” initiative, which they touted as an all-out effort to offset the party’s mail-in ballot deficit. However, this inane initiative simply calls for voters to visit BankYourVote.com to confirm that they have mailed their ballot. It does nothing to recruit volunteers, work with independent groups, or encourage low frequency voters to vote.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are spending massive amounts of money, time and organization on ballot chasing in order to repeat their success of 2020. In fact, the DNC has a website and PAC with overwhelming monetary resources to finance and train any left-wing organization that wants to participate in the effort.
Because of this lack of commitment, the rank-and-file Republican voter is neither enthusiastic nor financially contributing to the party. Additionally, there has been an absurd and foolish level of spending on non-get-out-the-vote efforts as pointed out by Jennifer Van Laar at Red State. The RNC is broke, and its finances are in shambles. Thus, the party is grossly uncompetitive with the Democrats.
Donald Trump, as its three-time presidential nominee, is the de facto leader of the Republican Party. Despite being forced to wallow in numerous legal quagmires, he must request Ronna McDaniel’s resignation and immediately initiate a housecleaning at the RNC.
Trump understands that rampant Democrat voting manipulation will not be defeated in the gilded offices in Washington, D.C. but in the precincts throughout all the battleground states. He must get involved and act quickly as the hour is growing exceedingly late.
Per a recent Gallup poll, the current breakdown of party identification is: 27% Democrat, 27% Republican, and 43% Independent, as more Americans are increasingly fed up with both parties. When Independents are asked whether they lean Republican or Democrat, the result is 45% of all poll respondents identified as or lean toward being a Republican and 43% identified as or lean toward being Democrats.
Analyzing exit polls, which eliminate the impact of voting manipulation, in 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each won 88% of the vote of their respective parties, the deciding factor -- Trump won independents by a 46-42% margin. In 2020 Biden and Trump each won 94% of the vote of their respective parties, the deciding factor -- Biden won independents by a 54-41% margin.
Polls nine months out from the election are essentially meaningless, but they do underscore the potential impact of the independent vote. For example, a Quinnipiac poll published on February 1, 2024, revealed that the independents polled were backing Biden by a margin of 52-40%, and Biden beats Trump 50-44% in the overall poll. However, in an NBC News poll published on February 4, 2024, Trump leads Biden 48-29% among the Independents they polled, and Trump beats Biden 47-42% in the overall poll.
The bottom line, independent voters, a majority of whom dislike both Biden and Trump, are a volatile but exceedingly important segment of the electorate.
This volatility is further exemplified by various polls published over the past six months which revealed that a majority of Independents believe Trump should be prosecuted for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. A January 31, 2024 Bloomberg poll indicated that over half of voters in the key battleground states would not vote for him if he is convicted of a felony.
Trump’s "insurrection" trial in Washinton, D.C. has been postponed indefinitely. If the decision of the appeals courts or the Supreme Court regarding presidential immunity goes against Trump, the odds are that the trial could take place in July or August. Any conviction so close to the election would leave Trump and the Republican Party in an untenable position going into November.
What is the strategy of the Trump campaign to deal with any potential conviction, or the very real possibility of Biden dropping out of the race? What is the blueprint for the RNC to turn out independent voters? At present, there appears to be none by either the Trump campaign or the RNC.
A portrait of the American electorate reveals that 73% are either conservative or moderate while just twenty-five percent claim to be liberal or very liberal. Seventy-one percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. And 92%of Republicans and 75% of independents deem themselves to be conservative or moderate on social issues.
Thus, the vast majority of the current American electorate is not in the thrall of the Marxist-controlled Democrat Party and can be swayed to vote for Republicans in 2024.
Whether that outcome can be achieved lies primarily in the hands of Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee, and secondarily in the hands of the individual candidates for federal and state offices. They must convincingly spell out why voters should 1) financially support the Party, 2) trust them to do everything possible to defeat the Democrats, and 3) turn out in massive numbers in November.