America in October of 2024
The 2024 presidential election is a year away. The political landscape of America in October of 2024 will be far different than it is today. The current polling, which focuses on which candidate for president is winning and the attendant punditry, is meaningless. Over the next twelve months there will be a significant increase in voter dissatisfaction due to unabated crime and illegal immigration as well as seismic shifts in the economy and foreign affairs which will dramatically affect the fortunes of both parties and their candidates.
A September 2023 poll revealed that just 28% of Americans believe the U.S. political system is working extremely or somewhat well. Additionally, 65% of respondents indicated that they are dissatisfied with the candidates running for president as another recent poll exposed that just 33% of American electorate has a favorable view of Joe Biden and only 29% have a favorable view of Donald Trump.
When combined with 76% of Americans believing the country is headed in the wrong direction, the darkly negative outlook of the citizenry will not improve over the next twelve months as there is virtually nothing indicating a sea change in the nation’s fortunes or politics. In fact, an unjaundiced view of the immediate future reveals ever-growing dark clouds on the horizon.
The economy is currently being propped up by unprecedented government expenditures combined with modest growth in consumer spending as Americans are paying significantly more for virtually everything. However, the current level of consumer spending cannot be sustained and will soon begin to significantly decline.
This decline is inevitable due to total household debt now reaching an unheard-of $17.28 Trillion (equivalent to the annual gross domestic product of China) while real incomes continue to rapidly deteriorate due to intractable inflation.
Many have been forced to turn to borrowing, spending their savings, drawing down their retirement accounts and credit card debt to pay their bills. As a result, bankruptcies and loan and credit card delinquencies are skyrocketing, while the wealth of Americans is being rapidly depleted.
The Biden Administration and its allies in Congress are determined to continue propping up the economy through massive government spending. However, due to this out-of-control fiscal policy, the government is having an increasingly difficult time convincing investors to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds without committing to significantly higher interest rates with each new auction.
The estimated annualized interest payments on U.S. government debt currently exceeds $1 Trillion, which represents 45.5% of all income tax revenue collected annually by the federal government and a doubling of interest expenses over the past 19 months alone.
While exorbitant government spending, borrowing, and de facto money printing continues there is little chance of inflation receding. The consumer, unlike previous economic recoveries, will not be at the forefront of triggering economic growth. Thus, the reality of a severe long-term economic downturn becomes more inevitable by the month.
The general consensus of many economists is that there is at a 60-65% probability of a recession before September of 2024. However, the ongoing massive drop in shipping volume, record bankruptcies, and unprecedented layoffs in the global and domestic supply chain portends a much higher probability of a significant recession in 2024.
On the international scene, chaos will continue to reign. It’s not a question of if but how much worse will it be in 12 months.
It is highly likely that Iran will have nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles within the next twelve months. As Iran will not be confronted or sanctioned by the United States or the West, they will be further emboldened to sow chaos in the Middle East by expanding their support for their terrorist proxies, increasing their influence in Iraq and Syria and targeting Saudi Arabia. Utilizing their proxies, Iran will continue to isolate and attack Israel, who, thanks to American interference, will not have fully destroyed Hamas or Hezb’allah. The Middle East will be more volatile a year from now than it is at present and the risk of American military involvement will be exponentially higher.
The war in Ukraine will be over as it will end in a stalemate with Russia permanently annexing a portion of eastern Ukraine. However, the Biden Administration will obligate the citizens of the United States to finance the bulk of the rebuilding. The Biden administration and Congress will essentially declare Ukraine a de facto American dependent while agreeing to allow Ukraine to join NATO.
China will continue to expand its hegemony throughout the western Pacific region by isolating Taiwan and continuously provoking America and its allies in the region. They will be actively engaging in governmental upheavals throughout South and Central America while threatening to cut off trade routes and selectively limiting trade with the United States. China is convinced that the Unites States is politically incapable of confronting them while also dealing with the Middle East, Ukraine, and a myriad of economic and societal issues at home. China will be an even more dangerous, aggressive, and implacable adversary a year from now.
Joe Biden will not be the Democrat Party nominee in 2024. His high unfavourability stemming from his egregious scandals, his age, his mental decrepitude, and his overall incompetence will embolden the party hierarchy to convince Biden to drop out of the race in the spring of 2024 and then resign after November 5, 2024. Thus, allowing Kamala Harris to serve as the historic first female President of color. The party will nominate someone else who can run on not being responsible for the failures of the Biden Administration while making Donald Trump the entire focus of their campaign.
Donald Trump, will in all likelihood, be found guilty of at least one felony in the January 6th “insurrection” trial as it is being adjudicated in Washington D.C. in front of a grossly prejudiced judge and a jury that will no doubt be predominantly made up of anti-Trump voters.
The Republican Party and its voters will then be faced with the quandary of sticking with Trump and his historically low approval ratings with the American electorate (average of 41% from 2017-2021, and an average of 37% from 2022-2023) or replacing him with someone the Democrats cannot so easily demonize.
The old adage “a year is an eternity in politics” is perhaps more apt in this presidential election cycle than in any in modern American history as there are so many variables that will impact the outcome. But the outcome of the 2024 election will determine the fate of the nation, particularly if the Democrats again control the White House and Congress.