Thirty Years of Global Warming Prophecies

NBC News recently touted a report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that says, "The chance to secure a livable future for everyone on Earth is slipping away."  It further reported, "There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.” This was echoed by Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council: "This is the stone cold truth laid out in unassailable science by the world's top climate experts.  We're hurtling down the road to ruin and running out of time to change course."

That's the same U.N. that was wrong 34 years ago when Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, said that “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.”

Fiona Harvey, Environment Editor at the Guardian, says, "Scientists have delivered a 'final warning' on the climate crisis, as rising greenhouse gas emissions push the world to the brink of irrevocable damage that only swift and drastic action can avert."  She cited a report from the IPCC, comprised of the world's leading climate scientists.

The U.N. again.

CBS News cited a study by Atmospheric scientist Dr. Walker Ashley at Northern Illinois University who predicts storms like the ones that tore through Mississippi, killing several dozen people, could become more common due to climate change.

Now let's shift attention to hypocritical politicians who make predictions with their mouths and actions, beginning with Barack Obama.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts the sea level to rise by as much as 12" in the next 30 years.  NOAA predicts the sea level rise, "...will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland.  By 2050, 'moderate' (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today."

But that information didn't deter Obama from purchasing an oceanside mansion on Martha's Vineyard.  The 7,000 square foot house is zero feet above sea level and about a quarter mile from the sea.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said in 2019, "...there is an urgency needed in addressing man-made climate change, warning that it will 'destroy the planet' in a dozen years if humans do not address the issue, no matter the cost." 

After the AP debunked her prediction, she tried to walk it back, tweeting, "This is a technique of the GOP, to take dry humor + sarcasm literally and 'fact check' it. Like the 'world ending in 12 years' thing, you'd have to have the social intelligence of a sea sponge to think it's literal. But the GOP is basically Dwight from The Office so who knows."

Her headquarters was a minute’s walk from the subway.  Yet AOC's initial campaign booked cars 1,049 times, including 26 in one day.  Despite high-speed rail being a cornerstone of her Green New Deal (GND) policy, she utilized Amtrak 18 times, compared to flying 66 times.  Her response: "The GND is about systemic change -- not about personal gas-guzzling practices."

I now focus upon the doddering old fool who occupies 'The Bully Pulpit.'  While Biden has made no verbal predictions, his actions demonstrate what he believes will occur if the climate crisis is not soon abated.  Biden said, "[Global warming] is the single most existential threat to humanity we have ever faced, including nuclear weapons."

Biden created a National Climate Change Task Force with its jobs (among others) to:

  • Reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels in 2030
  • Produce 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035
  • Achieve a net-zero emissions economy by 2050
  • Deliver 40% of the benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy to disadvantaged communities

Biden's 2021 goal sought to have 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 be electric vehicles (EVs) or plug-in hybrids.  Where does he think electricity comes from?  Currently, 0.2% is produced by photovoltaic panels, while wind accounts for 4%.  Most methods used to generate electricity produce carbon.  More electric cars will require more electricity as well as greater charging infrastructure and electric-grid capacity.  Utilities and power generator companies will have to invest billions creating additional capacity.

The number of EVs on U.S. roads is projected to reach 26.4 million in 2030, comprising 10% of the 259 million light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected.  That's a prediction, so we must use current data to evaluate it.  California has made lots of noise lately about EVs; let's see how it's doing.

California's new EV sales has reached 19%, yielding about 563,000 EVs total.  State officials claim that the 12.5 million EVs expected by 2035 will not strain the electricity grid.  But their confidence the state can avoid brownouts relies upon a best-case scenario:

  • Build solar and wind at an unprecedented pace: shifting to all renewables will require at least six gigawatts of new resources each year for the next 25 years, a pace that's never been met before
  • Convince people to charge their EVs during off-peak hours
  • Build 15 times more public chargers: about 1.2 million chargers will be needed for the eight million EVs expected by 2030. Currently, about 80,000 chargers operate statewide
  • Increase electricity production by 42% in 2035 and by as much as 85% in 2045.  Generation capacity to meet that demand throughout a given year will need to triple by 2045.

Only six days after the California Air Resources Board mandated that 35% of new 2026 cars sold in California (100% by 2035) must be zero-emissions, heat waves taxed California's power grid causing a 10-day emergency alert that warned residents to cut electricity usage or face outages.

Is this what we can expect in the predicted Biden-world in 2030?

But actions speak louder than words.  Despite his warning of the consequences of global warming, Biden regularly takes fuel-guzzling helicopters to weekend at his Delaware homes where he's spent nearly a quarter of his presidency. 

Image: IPCC

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