Can Donald Trump Win in 2024 America?
Due to demographics, voter manipulation, and implacable ideological fault lines, the 2024 election is a potential watershed that may well be the point of no return for this nation as founded if the Democrat Party’s presidential nominee wins. Thus, it is imperative that the Republican presidential nominee not only has a track record of defeating the radical left and facing down the media but more importantly can win the presidency in a nation far different than the America of seven-years ago.
America’s youngest generations (Millennials and Gen Z) now account for over half of the populace. Only 27% are proud to be American and unsurprisingly, nearly 20% believe that the Communist Manifesto “better guarantees freedom and equality for all” than the Declaration of Independence and nearly half believe that the U.S. economic system works against them.
More determinative is that 68% of these two generations would vote for an avowed socialist candidate. When combined with the unfortunate reality that 33% of the older generations would also vote for an avowed socialist, the political impact of Millennials and Gen Z cannot be underestimated.
This massive segment of the citizenry is growing in influence with each passing election. In 2016 this group accounted for 36% of all registered voters. In 2020 they accounted for 44% of all registered voters. In 2024 it is estimated that they will account for nearly 52% of all registered voters.
While in the 2016 election these two generations accounted for less than 32% of the overall vote and voted 55-38% for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump, by the 2020 election this bloc accounted for 44% of the overall vote and voted 54-43% for Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump.
Despite rampant inflation, impending recession, massive disapproval of Biden’s job performance, and 75% of the country agreeing with the statement that the nation is on the wrong track, in the 2022 mid-terms these two generations voted 57-40% for the Democrat Senate and House candidates, which is the primary reason the vaunted and expected red-wave did not materialize.
These generations are not lost to the conservatives if the 2024 Republican nominee has the temperament and ability to unabashedly talk to these generations about the direction of the country and their vital role in its future as compared to the dystopian scenario the Marxist Democrats offer.
Bombastic rhetoric or the regurgitation of decades-old Republican talking points will only alienate these generations further as the Republican nominee in 2024 cannot win the presidency without reducing the vote deficit over the past three election cycles from an average of 15 to at least 4-5 percentage points, as it is estimated that this voting bloc will account for nearly 50% of the overall vote.
Much has been written about the minority vote migrating to the Republican Party. While there has been movement, in reality it is far too small to offset the potential impact of new generational voting patterns.
In 2016, 89% of the Black vote and 66% of the Hispanic vote backed Hillary Clinton. In 2020 the respective results were 87% of Blacks and 65% of Hispanics voted for Joe Biden. Despite being disproportionally impacted by Democrat economic policies, the 2022 mid-terms recorded a similar pattern as 86% of Blacks and 60% of Hispanics voted for Democrat Senate and House candidates.
While there is only a marginal chance of increasing the Black vote in 2024, there is an opportunity to increase the share of the Hispanic vote. However, that is fully dependent on a Republican nominee who can tap into the economic and cultural underpinning of American Hispanics and a track record of acceptance to these voters.
Couple the above demographic realities with brazen and unfettered ballot harvesting, mail-in voting, outright voter fraud by lawfare and ballot manipulation by the Democrats in every so-called battleground state, the prospects of winning future presidential elections, which depend on the Electoral College vote, become problematic.
The only potential solution to this massive Democrat advantage in 2024 is for the Republican establishment to finally make a concerted effort to also ballot harvest and aggressively promote mail-in and early voting among their constituents. However, a historically somnambulant and feckless Republican Party hierarchy seems incapable of doing so.
Only a determined and fearless Republican nominee who has an unapologetic track record of not being intimidated by the media and a history of confronting the radical left can organize and galvanize the grass roots to defeat the Democrats at their game.
Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris will be the Democrat party nominee in 2024. In all likelihood the party establishment will recruit and coronate Michelle Obama as the nominee, effectively skipping the expense and vitriol of the primaries.
This will enable them to focus all their resources on the Republican nominee. Despite a fractured economy, a society in shambles and a culture in chaos, Michelle Obama with the power of the legacy media behind her, will be a formidable candidate that will appeal to America’s younger generations and minorities.
If a left-wing Democrat wins the White House in 2024, the radical left will have controlled the presidency for sixteen out of twenty-years. By 2028 they and the Democrat party will have transformed the Judiciary into a de facto quasi-Marxist legislature and in all likelihood appoint at least two to three Supreme Court Justices. Thus, there will be no check on their governing by executive order regardless of the make-up of Congress.
Over the past two-years the southern border has been deliberately flung open allowing 5+ million illegal immigrants and perhaps another 5+ million over the next two years to enter the country. This was done with the shameless intention of granting these and nearly 20+ million illegals already in the country amnesty by executive order and eventually voting rights.
Coupled with demographic voting changes, the massive influx of “migrants”, and the left’s intent to federalize all elections and compel mail-in voting and ballot harvesting in all states, the Democrat party will never lose a national election and thus will also capture Congress in near perpetuity.
The importance of the 2024 election cannot be understated. The importance of the Republicans nominating an accomplished conservative candidate that can win the general election in 2024 America is therefore paramount.
The current frontrunner, Donald Trump, can perhaps easily win the Republican nomination through the primary process; however, unless he changes his demeanor, bombastic style and inability to connect with over 50+% of current voters, he cannot win in a general election.
Trump’s accomplishments during his one term are legion, but this is not 2016 and Michelle Obama is not Hillary Clinton. Further, the results of the 2022 mid-term election exposed that reliance on pocketbook issues and competence to win elections is a thing of the past as the political party’s ability to “get out the vote” and the candidate’s attributes and affiliations have become paramount.
It is imperative that conservative, Libertarian and Republican voters understand what is at stake in 2024 and put sentiment, loyalty, and antagonisms aside and focus on choosing the candidate best able to win the presidency in the America of today, not the America of 7 or 15 or 30 years ago.