The Polls Shift Toward Trump
You can call me Pollyannish, but I am beginning to believe I may have underestimated the silent Trump vote in my previous posts. This is why.
I mentioned the 2020 Cato Institute poll before, which discusses the high percentage of conservatives who are afraid to express their political views. Something I failed to consider was:
Nearly two‐thirds of Latino Americans (65%) and White Americans (64%) and nearly half of African Americans (49%) have political views they are afraid to share.
Why would 65% of Latin voters and 49% of Black voters be afraid to express their political views, especially if 70-90% of them, respectively, are voting for Biden? Are they afraid of the bad orange man, or is a significant portion of these two minority groups part of the silent Trump vote? The answer may be the latter.
A Zogby poll from late August indicated 36% of Black voters approved of President Trump’s job performance, along with 37% of Hispanic voters.
The Rasmussen Tracking poll showed a surge in approval for the President by likely Black voters between October 19-23 of 21 points, from 25% to 46%.
Ditto a Zia poll, taken in Michigan and released October 20, which showed Trump getting the support of 46% of Black voters and almost 40% of Hispanics.
Is this support for Trump real? Lenard McKelvey, a.k.a. Charlamagne tha God, discussing Trump’s pursuit of black voters on CNN, said, “Trump is targeting young black males in promos and marketing. It works.” Even CNN personality and dyed-in-the-wool socialist Van Jones praised Trump for the good things he has done for the black community.
Will minority support actually show up at this level in the vote count on Election Day? That is anybody’s guess. Considering Trump won only 8% of the Black vote and 28% of the Hispanic vote in 2016, this has to be considered a major plus.
Word in the news media and in the polls is Trump is losing suburban women. To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast!”
You may have heard of the Granite State poll that found 68% of Trump supporters in New Hampshire were reluctant to place Trump signs in their yards for fear their homes may get vandalized. In addition, the poll also found 45% of Trump supporters would not discuss their approval of the President for fear of alienating friends or co-workers, and nearly 70% of women would not discuss their support of Trump with anyone for the same reason.
That last bit about the 70% of women who support Trump may be the key element to the silent Trump vote and the entire election. Why? The answer is social pressure.
Men and women operate differently in the sphere of social interaction. Men are more hierarchical, that is they tend to follow or listen to a leader or those with seniority. Women are more collectivist or consensus driven, meaning the overall attitudes and opinions of the group matter more than that of any individual. For a woman to challenge the consensus of her social circle is to risk being bad-mouthed or, at worst, ostracized. Group social conformity may explain why women who support Trump are reluctant to say so, and this may be carrying over to the polls.
Then, there is something I mentioned in a previous post called social desirability bias. This means people who respond to polls may change their answers in order to appear more likable.
An Axios SurveyMonkey poll taken in September found 52% of white suburban men, who do not feel safe in their communities, backed Trump, while only 42% of white suburban women did. If I remember correctly, Trump supports the police while Biden’s team is just the opposite. On a commonsense level, that poll number does not compute.
If you factor in the hate speech and the anti-Trump propaganda the media and the Democrat Party have brought to bear against Trump, it makes more sense. Are you going to support evil lying Trump or sweet lovable Joe? Women are not stupid. They are not going to risk trading peace and prosperity for higher taxes, fewer police, and more unemployment. They are simply less willing to tell the pollster they are voting for Trump.
If you look at the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Biden is up by 7.4 points. However, if you average just the three most recent polls, the national average drops to Biden +4.3.
The RCP averages for the battleground states have also improved in Trump’s favor. Ohio’s RCP average now has Trump ahead by a margin of +0.6 points.
Georgia is Trump +0.4. The average of the three latest polls is Trump +1.
In Florida, the current RCP average is Biden +1.2. The average of the four most recent polls is Biden +0.5.
The Pennsylvania RCP average is Biden by roughly +4. If you average the six most recent polls, it drops to Biden +2.2.
In North Carolina, the average is Biden +1.2. The average of the latest three polls is even.
Iowa is Biden +0.8, which is within the margin of error for all the Iowa polls. The average of the three latest polls is Biden +0.3.
The RCP average in Michigan is Biden +9. However, the average does not include the above mentioned Zia poll, at Trump +4, nor a recent Trafalgar poll at Trump +1.8. Include these polls and the average drops to Biden +5.6.
Arizona’s RCP average is Biden +2.2. The average of the last three polls is Biden +1.
Wisconsin is Biden +5.5, Minnesota is Biden +6, and Nevada is Biden +5.2. All are still winnable but not necessary.
Texas is red and Colorado is blue. They were never battleground states to start with. The rest of the supposed battleground states do not matter.
In my personal opinion, Donald Trump is a combination of the best and the worst New York has to offer. On the minus side, he is a brash, vain, egotistical, loudmouthed, a billionaire. On the plus side, he is a compassionate, sincere, loving individual and a bold, risk-taking, successful businessman and entrepreneur.
As President, Trump’s record of accomplishment is virtually unparalleled. Look at all the new America-friendly trade deals. Look at all the new factories, homes, and warehouses being built. He is fighting terrorism and keeping us out of foreign wars. Peace is happening in the Middle East! And there is much more.
Frankly, I do not care what CNN or the New York Times think, and I do not care about Trump’s personality flaws. Any president who can solve problems, deal effectively with our friends and competitors, keep the peace, and bring the juice to our economy deserves our support.
My prediction is the silent Trump vote will be the difference in the election. Polls are clearly shifting in his direction. If we assume the polls are accurate, and I still have my doubts, at this moment all Trump needs is a +2% shift in the battleground states and it is game over. It may be close in the Electoral College, but I truly believe Trump will win.
Finally, some friendly advice for Bruce Springsteen. Australia is a great country and an excellent choice. I think Qantas is a great airline, too, except they fly Airbuses, which vibrate a lot and bounce around in turbulence like a kite on a string. So, when you leave for Australia, I would fly United. The food is a bit better, and those big solid Boeing planes will make you feel much safer.