August 17, 2019
Beware of Rate-cut Fever
Much has been written about the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even beyond the July cut, the first one in eleven years. Indeed, the latest escalation of trade tensions with China and its concomitant currency depreciation might make further cuts more compelling. Or not. The principal purpose of a rate cut is to provide liquidity to foster greater consumption and business investment that stimulate economic growth in the face of sustained opposition forces. But rate cuts without sufficient justification, such as those based on transitory developments, reaction to presidential jawboning, miming other central banks, or inadequate consideration of market fundamentals can thwart economic progress.
The Case for Rate Reduction
The sentiment for Fed rate reduction is predicated primarily on suppressed demand resulting from slow global economic growth and uncertainty about U.S.-China trade policy, exacerbated by sudden contagion concerns over...(Read Full Article)