To Avoid Global War, Ensure US Energy Dominance
The world is using more, not less energy, with the United States leading this surge. This fact will continue changing the world geopolitically and bring changes to global markets. BP's seminal Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 was released in early June, and the findings revealed that the U.S. is leading the world in production of fossil fuels. The report counters prevailing wisdom that peak oil demand is rapidly happening, when the exact opposite is taking place.
World oil records were broken in 2018 — according to the Review, "a new oil consumption record of 99.8 million barrels per day (mbpd), which is the ninth straight year global oil demand has increased." Demand for oil grew 1.5 percent. This is above the "decades-long average of 1.2 percent."
The Review showed that the U.S. is the world's top consumer at 20.5 mbpd in 2018, and China was second at 13.5 mbpd, with India in third place at 5.2 mbpd. China and India are growing faster than world and U.S. consumer growth at 5 percent the past decade. What's noticeable about the data is that "Asia Pacific has been the world's fastest growing oil market over the past decade with 2.7% average annual growth."
BP also released the emergence of a new global oil production record in 2018 that averaged 94.7 mbpd. This increased from 2.22 million mbpd from 2017. The U.S. came in at 15.3 mbpd and led all countries by increasing production from 2017 by over 2.18 mbpd. The U.S. added 98 percent of total global additions, an astonishing figure.
Before the U.S. shale exploration and production (E&P) took off, oil was over $100 a barrel, but since the 2014 oil crash, global oil production has increased by 11.6 mbpd and shows no signs of slowing down. What Russell Gold of The Wall Street Journal calls "the shale boom" has seen "U.S. oil production increase by 8.5 mbpd — equal to 73.2% of the global increase in production."
What the numbers increasingly showed is the U.S. quickly surpassing Saudi Arabia, the second leading oil-producer at 12.3 mbpd, with Russia in third at 11.4 mbpd. Though Canada has domestic opposition from environmental groups to fossil fuel production, Canada added over 410,000 bpd in 2017.
Add these figures to U.S. numbers, and North America is now arguably the most important source for oil in the world. The BP Review decided to add natural gas liquids (NGLs) to oil production numbers and found that U.S. NGL is higher than in any other country at 4.3 mbpd. This is higher than Middle Eastern numbers combined and "accounts for 37.6% of total global NGL production."
What does this mean for geopolitics? The axiom "whoever controls energy controls the world" now takes on new meaning, with the U.S. drastically pulling ahead of Middle Eastern rivals, Russia, and other global producers. Energy has always been a main factor in human development, and this is especially true of today's complex international, political, and economic systems that have been in place since the end of World War II.
With abundant energy, scarcity no longer makes sense when global energy sources are now readily available. When geopolitical havoc comes from Africa since over 600 million Africans are without power, added to the over 1.2 billion people on Earth without electricity, that is a recipe for geopolitical disaster than can be avoided.
What abundant U.S. shale oil and natural gas can provide as well, if steadfastly pursued, is a stop to the rampant weaponization of energy from countries like Russia and Iran.
The current path of demonizing fossil fuels won't lift billions out of energy poverty, but it will serve to fortify Vladimir Putin's resolve. Western media outlets that back the get-off-fossil-fuels crowd do not seem to understand those geopolitical realities. Building electrical lines powered by U.S. natural gas over authoritarian dictators' oil and natural gas supplies is a great pathway to promoting democratic capitalism, energy-sufficient nation-states, and continents with market economies.
This will lead billions out of despair and solve a host of geopolitical problems that have vexed the U.S., the E.U., NATO and the U.N. for decades. All of these problems will be solved without a shot being fired or another fruitless war occurring.
The U.S. countering the weaponization of energy through increased oil and NGL production has national security and foreign policy implications that affect literally every person on the planet. As an example, if Ukraine, a NATO Member Action Plan applicant since 2008, can be bullied, annexed, and invaded without consequence from the West, then global economic markets can be crushed on a whim.
Understanding foreign policy decisions through the lens of energy can lead either to chaos or to the deterring of determined enemies. That's why it is so important that the U.S. continue leading the world in oil and natural gas production.
When more than 80 percent of the world's energy comes from oil, natural gas, and coal, while understanding that "fossil fuels have enabled the greatest advancements in living standards over the last 150 years," then energy is the number-one soft- and hard-power geopolitical weapon outside a nuclear arsenal.
"Leading from behind" and "resets" favored by the former U.S. administration won't help Ukraine or other Russian border states under systematic assault. Trillions in economic growth is then stifled over energy concerns when the exact opposite should be happening.
Viewing the U.S.'s number-one oil-producer status through the prism of stopping authoritarians, and moving international relations toward the U.S.-led order, is the best hope for the world in this perilous century. Geopolitically, it may also be out best hope for growth and forestalling another global war.