Will Trump be the Last Republican President?
I believe that Donald Trump will be the last Republican president many of us will ever see in our lifetimes. We hope that he will serve two terms, but even that is not a given, despite his popularity both personally and of his MAGA agenda. I’ll call it the three D’s, in honor of Trump’s first name Donald – demeanor, demographics, and deception.
Let’s start with the first D of “Demeanor,” his personality. Look at Trump’s 2016 election. Republicans ran a strong field of candidates, most of whom were qualified and capable of serving as president, even if some of their political agendas were more establishment than conservative, all certainly better than the alternative, Hillary Clinton. Trump was the only one of the 17 who could have prevailed in the general election against the candidate supported by the entire American left. Mrs. Clinton had the endorsement and support of virtually the entire media, academia, entertainment, and Wall Street financiers.
Yet Trump won, handily. No other Republican candidate could have pulled that off. No other candidate would have filled arenas for nonstop campaign rallies. No other candidate would have punched back against media hatred with the ferocity of a junkyard dog. No other candidate would have advanced such a conservative agenda, whether on trade, immigration, taxes, or the judiciary.
In other words, Trump is a one-off, an exception. Unlike Obama, Trump is the one we have been waiting for, after a string of wet noodles named Bush, Romney, McCain, and Ryan to name a few. But the Republican bench is thin. Who is the heir apparent? I don’t see anyone with the charisma, fire in the belly, energy, and commitment to conservative principles and values.
There is no one out there who can connect with the people as Trump does. If any of the other 17 were to win the presidency, they would be overwhelmed by the media onslaught and siren song of the establishment and globalists, pushing for Chamber of Commerce objectives of lousy trade deals, open borders, and moderate judicial picks.
It’s the demeanor to not only get elected, but also to govern like a boss. That’s the rare combination in Donald Trump and no one else.
The next D is “Demographics.” For Trump to be reelected and for any Republican to follow him into the White House, the Electoral College may be the roadblock. Despite Trump prevailing comfortably in 2016, winning 30 states with an Electoral College margin of 77 votes, will this trend continue in the future?
Suppose Texas and Florida flip to the blue side? Texas with 38 electoral votes and Florida with 29 votes total 67 votes, 10 shy of Trump’s winning margin. Flip one more state and it’s lights out for the GOP. Could this happen? Absolutely and it likely will. It’s just a matter of time, whether in 2020 or 2024.
Ted Cruz won his Senate seat in 2012 57-41 percent, a 16 point margin. Last week, the margin was much smaller, 51-48, barely a 3 point margin. Where do demographics play into this? This headline from the Washington Examiner answers the question, “New Yorkers and Californians can't stop moving to Texas.”
Not just Texas but also Florida, both states provide friendly economic and tax policies, attractive to those escaping economic oppression in New York and California. Ironically, many leaving those states bring their liberal values with them, at least in terms of voting.
Even the most liberal individuals seek the best economic circumstances for themselves personally. Just look at the Kennedy family team of attorneys, accountants, and trusts seeking to minimize the taxes they pay, while happily advocating high taxes on everyone else. Fiscal conservatism for me, but not for thee. Or in the voting booth.
Don’t forget illegal immigrants, slowly populating states like Florida and Texas. How many are voting? And who might they be voting for? Are demographics shifting any states in the opposite direction, from blue states to permanent red? I don’t see any. But the red to blue transition is well underway. And not accidentally. Democrats are good at playing the long game, and a slow electoral shift has been in the works for decades.
Furthermore, Florida, via ballot referendum, restored voting rights to over 1 million felons. Any guesses how most of them will vote? With the governor and Senate races decided by tens of thousands of votes, if only 5 percent of these newly enfranchised felons vote for the Democrat candidate, the midterm results would be flipped. Likewise for any future presidential elections.
Florida is now a toss-up state and Texas may soon be there. Trump’s success in the rust belt will not likely be repeated by a more moderate GOP candidate, turning the final electoral map blue rather than red.
The last D is “Deception”. Hugh Hewitt wrote a book whose title says it all, “If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat: Crushing the Democrats in Every Election and Why Your Life Depends on It.” Look at Arizona, a Senate race won by a Republican, now through the miracle of “finding” votes after the fact, is all but certain to be flipped to the Democrat.
Florida, with close results for Senate and Governor on election night, the losers having already conceded, is in the process of being hijacked by the Democrats. The Florida agricultural commissioner race has already been stolen and flipped to the Democrat. The Senate and Governor races are heading in the same direction. Unless the GOP fights back hard, these two races will also be stolen.
I suspect that the Democrats in Broward County have learned from their mistakes in 2000 and will make sure that in a close presidential election, the necessary votes will be found after the fact to convert a slim Republican victory into Democrat hands. A comfortable GOP Senate majority, after Democrat deception, may be close again, making Trump’s Supreme Court confirmations dependent on the whims of Murkowski, Collins, and Jeff Flake’s NeverTrump replacement, Mitt Romney.
Without another Donald Trump, with his larger than life personality and willingness to punch back against overwhelming opposition and hostility, Republicans will have a hard time electing a new president. Combined with the demographic shift to a population inclined to vote for “democratic socialism,” the skill of Democrats in stealing close elections, Donald John Trump may indeed be the last Republican president we see in the foreseeable future.
Photo credit: croppped from Ninian Reid
Brian C Joondeph, MD, MPS, a Denver based physician and writer. Follow him on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.