Italy's Population is Sinking Faster Than the Tower of Pisa

The Leaning Tower of Pisa is one of Italy’s famous landmarks. Recognized the world over. The tower actually does lean, beginning during construction in the 12th century. The tilt is due to an, “inadequate foundation on ground too soft on one side to properly support the structure's weight.” Similar to many European countries, as I will explain.  

Pisa is located in the Tuscany region of central Italy. Rolling hills, medieval castles and towers, vineyards, wine, and fine food are among the charms of this lovely portion of Italy. Currently traveling through this area as I write this, I pondered the centuries of history. Looking to the future, Italy’s rich history and heritage may be coming to an end.

The Leaning Tower of Pisa. Photo by Brian C. Joondeph

Recently Gefira, a European financial and geopolitical think tank, predicted that, “By 2080, Italians will be a minority in their own country.” More specifically, until 2015, Italy’s population was growing. After a few decades of stabilization, the indigenous Italian population will begin leaning downward, like the Tower of Pisa.

Unlike the tower, which can be stabilized via architectural and foundational supports, the Italian population will continue leaning until its eventual collapse. Fewer Italians to work and pay taxes supporting their generous social-welfare system. Similar to what is occurring throughout Western Europe.

Just as with the tower, “inadequate foundation on ground too soft on one side to properly support the structure's weight.” The European social-welfare state is too soft, collapsing under the weight of too many takers and not enough workers.

Italy will rely on migration to fill the void left by non-reproducing Italians. Currently most migrants to Italy are from Romania, but even that trend is in decline. Instead, fixing the population shortfall, “can only be achieved by mass migration from Africa and Central Asia.” Already apparent to me judging from the street vendors in Venice, Pisa, and Florence.

By 2080, a mere 60 years from now, “50% of Italy’s inhabitants will be of African or Asian descent.” From Michelangelo and Leonardo to Mohammed and Abdul. A millennium of history. Erased in a few decades by the forces of demographics.

Mark Steyn, in several books, makes the case that REM was right. “It’s the end of the world as we know it.” Unlike global warming, demographics is indeed an “inconvenient truth”.

In developed countries, the population replacement rate is 2.1. Meaning each woman must bear, on average, slightly more than two children. The two replacing their mother and father, and the 0.1 allowing for infant or childhood mortality. If each mother has three or more children, the population grows, as it did in America after World War II.

Italy has a current replacement rate of 1.34, far below what’s necessary to sustain its population. Two parents replaced in the next generation by one and a third children. You do the math.

The rest of the EU isn’t much better off with a 1.58 fertility rate. France leads the way at 1.96, just about enough to replace its indigenous population. “L’amour” and “Ooh la la” in actual practice, not just lines from a romantic French movie.

Japan has her own struggles in the baby department. With a fertility rate of 1.44. Better than South Korea at 1.17, worse than the US at 1.82.

So what if the native population of a country declines? Can’t they be replaced. Sure. “The European leaders have opted for replenishing their nations with migrants.” Not from Europe as most other EU countries are looking for their own replacement population. Instead migrants arrive by the boatload from the Middle East and Africa.

A short but perilous journey across the Mediterranean, from Libya to Italy, Turkey to Greece, Morocco to Spain. Hundreds of thousands, replacing the phantom European children not being brought into the world.

Japan, despite its declining population, has taken a different approach, “Refusing to replace their people with aliens, knowing full well that in the long run such a step would mean that Japan will only continue to exist in name.”

Europe is already heading down the road, transitioning from the continent it once was. Europe in name only. Rapes in Stockholm, bombs in Brussels, public defecation in Germany. Once the height of culture and refinement, now starting to resemble President Trump’s famous characterization of a “s-hole.”

Will migrants to Italy over the next century care to preserve the centuries of tradition and history? Or will they elect leaders preferring to replace Italian culture with sharia and what they brought from their home countries?

Panorama of Florence, Italy. Photo by Brian C. Joondeph

Remember that when you bring there here, here becomes there. Are EU leaders blissfully unaware or do they just not care? Knowing they will be long gone before their “here becomes there”.

Which is one of the primary reasons we have President Trump. Securing our border, controlling both legal and illegal immigration, preserving American culture and traditions. Just as Japan chooses to do and much of the EU chooses instead to poo poo.

Yet Trump and his supporters are called racists and xenophobes for acknowledging and standing up to the foundational quicksand of open borders and generous social benefits.

It’s either Trump’s way or the Italian way. Make America Great Again or the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Americans chose one path a little over a year ago. Italy, instead, whether due to political correctness or economic expediency, may be opting to say “arrivederci” to its rich culture and history.


Brian C. Joondeph, MD, MPS, a Denver based physician and writer. Follow him on Facebook,  LinkedIn and Twitter.

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