The key factor in any election is almost always who will turn out to vote. Pollsters usually have two categories of potential voters with which to measure anticipated voter sentiment.  The first is registered voters (RVs), and the second is likely voters (LVs).  The former are easy to identify, but since so many RVs don't actually vote, a poll of these persons is relatively useless once an actual campaign begins in earnest.  LVs are much more difficult to identify and require a number of subjective assumptions by pollsters.  One of those assumptions is based on whether or not someone voted in the previous election.  A second is what the person being polled tells the pollster.  It takes many more inquiries to find a likely voter, and thus many pollsters prefer to employ registered voters as their sample. At this point in the 2016 national election cycle, and particularly in the presidential contest, a...(Read Full Article)