Trump’s The One
This year’s singularly perverse presidential race -- on both sides -- perfectly illustrates Mr. Dooley’s observation that “Politics ain’t beanbag.” In fact, in almost makes action in the Roman Coliseum seem gentle by comparison!
AT contributor Jack Cashill describes this race succinctly in his compelling article here: “The respective campaigns are vulgar, crass, sleazy, and dishonest ….”
However, having looked away from the gore and closed my ears to the cacophony, I am supporting Donald Trump given the alternatives. But I think a look at the current state of play is in order before I attempt to justify my acceptance of a billet in Trump’s camp.
To the Mainstream Media, the GOP establishment, and much if not most, of the conservative commentariat, Trump is an abhorrence and a monumental electoral disaster-in-waiting. To be sure, they all may have it just right, but, as Rush Limbaugh says repeatedly, individuals or groups that hold those and similar notions about Trump understand neither the man nor the message, and they certainly do not understand the force behind Trumpmentum.
To name just three men who know, like, and respect him, Trump, the man, is to Rush, Newt, and Rudy an honest, decent, talented person who would be good for the country. Now, none of the three have said so in those words, but that is the take-away I have from what they say about him.
And, I further think, those three and I believe that the message is not “Make America Great Again,” but “I can get it done.”
The driving force behind Trump’s appeal is that people are sick of and intensely angry at all politicians, establishments, and circumstances that have placed them in the midst of the sorry state of affairs extant today.
Before dismissing that observation as a Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious, please consider that the gravity of that sickness/anger is incomprehensible to those who do not believe in that force.
The non-believers are, by-and-large, insulated from or inoculated against that force by position, wealth, and/or benefits:
“….he’s a threat to the big people in politics, the lobbyists, the elitists in the Republican Party…. [Another person]…was equally glum. “[There are]…huge turnouts [for] Trump…[and] they’re still not paying attention….They’re still trying to do their own thing despite the voice of the people….they don’t get it….”
To get the nomination, Trump must go to the convention with at least 1,237 delegates because he will find no more at the convention since the GOP establishment will do anything to stop him from so doing. The same goes for Ted Cruz.
Cruz is a man with similar characteristics, a similar message, and a similar understanding of the sickness, but he is not a viable alternative to Trump because he may be the most unlikeable person to come down the pike since Joe McCarthy. And I say that because, anecdotally, I can affirm that the-man-in-the-street feels the same thing about him as the aforementioned gaggle of groups does.
Notwithstanding his controversial successes in Colorado and Virginia this past weekend, Cruz faces a more difficult road to the magical 1,237 first-ballot votes than Trump. Scott Adams, the very accomplished creator of Dilbert, Wally, and the pointy-haired manager, has long held that Trump will defeat the Democratic candidate handily (see autoplay Feb. interview here). Recently he asserted that it will be because the electorate will see the national and international situation is so parlous in November that only (also autoplay) “Dad,” the big person in the room, can protect them no matter who “Mom” is. That cannot be said of anyone else in the field, and that theme will likely become prominent as the campaign progresses.
A long-time Trump friend, Bob Wright, believes that he champions all the issues troubling the vast working-class of Middle America. I believe (but can’t find the link) that Wright said he does so much like Jessie Ventura, Al Frankin, and Sonny Bono did. Some of his recent comments:
“…I’m embarrassed by the way the party is handling him…. They seem to be oblivious to the millions of people he’s attracting….[He is]...not afraid to negotiate with anyone....He is extremely win-oriented....[and] people underestimate Trump’s ability and cunning. He has brought to the fore important matters like immigration and jobs in a way that can no longer be ignored. So he will bring sharp focus on the issues he can exploit, and influence others to take positions and actions”
Between Adams and Wright we see a script emerge that explains why Trump has a surprising appeal to some working-class blacks and Latinos and codgers like me and my neighbors, many of whom reluctantly say they’ll hold their noses and vote Trump given the unacceptable alternative in November.
Trump has the answers for those groups, no matter how improbable and preposterous the answers may appear to be now, to the vexing problems of unemployment, underemployment, illegal immigration, forced legal immigration of competing, low-wage immigrants, unfair trade policies, the ruinous Iran “deal,” and other such hot button issues.
I cannot imagine a scenario wherein anyone but Trump can beat Hillary. In the unlikely event that Cruz gets the first-ballot 1,237 delegates, I do not see a path for him to 270 electoral votes, and Trumpsters will stay home if Trump is in any way denied the nomination for an establishment choice.
And Hillary must be defeated. Cashill again: “Today, after eight years of Obama, only one side believes the future of the country is at stake. And Republicans don’t just believe it. They know it is.”
So, with the above prologue, I am supporting Trump because he is a person that “manages to get things done.”
He’s the best manager the country’s seen since Jack Welch and Lee Iacocca. He sets priorities, hires the best people he can find, and tells them what to do and how he wants it done. Then tells them that when they have problems with doing it they are to come to him and tell how he can help them solve the problem. Trump gets things done!
One of the best-ever sports broadcasters, Warner Wolf, who’s lived in two of his buildings says: "...he hires the best...[and] will have the sense to hire right people...." In Wolf’s words, "let's go to the audio tape" here (autoplay at about 13:30).
More Wright: “…he would be a fierce advocate. He would take no prisoners….[And he is]…a hard-charging executive who gets things done.”
Trump’s recent hiring of Paul Manafort is the perfect example of Trump’s hiring method. Much as he solved the ice-rink problem (“Who builds ice-rinks>”) in New York, Trump asked: “Who gets delegates,” and the answer was not Canadians in this case but Mr. Manafort.
And Manafort will probably improve Trump’s handling of the press and Trump’s off-the-cuff blundering and meandering comments. Manafort’s handling (also autoplay) of Chuck Todd on Sunday’s MTP was a seldom seen and remarkable-to-see tour de force.
Manafort also touched on the electability issue vis–à–vis Cruz: “…there's not one state you can look at that Romney won or lost in 2012 that Cruz can win. Not one. But Trump changes the whole map.”
Trump’s …path toward 270 electoral votes would be though states with substantial white working-class voters. Unfortunately for him, those states have traditionally performed much worse for Republicans than the country as a whole.
That whole piece is well-worth a full read, because Rothenberg does an excellent job of reviewing the whole situation that exists today.
Others think Hillary’s best positioned to do that”
If Clinton were able to win all of those (see map, ed.) states, plus all of the states that Obama won in 2012, then she would walk away with 386 Electoral Votes to her opponents 152, which would be one of the highest Electoral Vote totals for a winning candidate….
At this point, it’s pure speculation either way because polls are all over the joint!
I know from long conversations with a 40-something friend that many blacks in Pensacola are getting off the plantation and ditching and switching (don’t miss the Diamond and Silk embedded video) because the last 7 ½ years have been devastating, and they agree that Hillary will bring no improvement in their prospects (but their mothers, wives, and sisters don’t necessarily agree with them).
A 10-20 point shift in the black vote will shoo Trump in.
Dems Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell like Trump’s prospects, because both of those long-time Dem. operatives/pollsters are fed up with their party today (The latest episode of their Sunday gab fest doesn’t seem to be available).
Roger Stone and Manafort are long-time allies, and I’m sure turning Trump’s negatives, especially with women, will be their major task if Trump prevails in July.
Please keep in mind, particularly with Dems and Indies, the Wilder Effect may be in major play in both pre-election and exit polls. I think that it is given the size and scope of Trump’s rallies.
And those rallies are similar in size to those of Sanders, but he holds many more of them than does Sanders. Each attendee is an email address, and more email addresses with those who got or even asked about tickets, but ended up as non-attendees.
But Manafort has a long way to go to catch up with Cruz’s outreach to delegates/delegate-selecting voters. This will show what that outreach looks like!
But, the Clinton’s are capable of anything!
Hang on to your hats, folks, accept reality, and know that the next seven months will take us on a mind-bogglingly-wild ride, --- and consider: Donald J. Trump is a Jackass! However, to paraphrase FDR or someone, “He’s our (my) Jackass”!