Iran's Quiet War

The Middle East is quietly at war, with Iran conducting a campaign to become the Middle East hegemon and kick out America and Israel.  The first shots of this war were fired when the Yemeni Shiite Houthi rebels crossed the Saudi Arabian border in late 2009 to test the kingdom's resolve.  It continued with the January 19, 2010 assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, who was killed in Dubai, while on his way to Iran to buy weapons for Hamas in Gaza. 

Gaza, voluntarily vacated by Israel to facilitate Palestinian leadership and control, is now a terrorist camp.  Hamas, which won an election in 2005, over the next 2 years killed their political opposition and turned Gaza into a ballistic missile launching platform, targeting Israeli cities.  Thousands of missiles rained down on Israel until the IDF broke the back of the campaign militarily and established, successfully, the blockade in an attempt to prevent a recurrence.  Iran and her allies have been busy rearming Hamas, while trying to break the blockade ever since.

The war intensified with Iran establishing alliances with Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela, signing an agreement with President Chavez to build a military base with rocket launch capabilities in Venezuela on October 19, 2010.  Iran already possesses missiles capable of hitting American cities from Venezuela.  The president said nothing at the time -- he was too busy planning his Christmas vacation -- and he says nothing now.  It's not as if we have anything to fear from a maniac like Hugo Chavez, is it?  

Iranian ally Syria has long armed Hezb'allah in Lebanon, most recently with Scuds, increasing the range of their offensive missiles from under 100 to over 400 miles, putting all of Israel within range of attack.  Hezb'allah denies their presence, but can they really be believed?

While Mr. Obama plays in the Libyan sandbox and says nothing, Iran is directing the action as Syria bloodily suppresses its internal rebellion.  For months, it has been rumored that Iranian snipers are in Syria as well.  The Syrians are molesting our diplomats and staging "impromptu" attacks on our embassy and still nothing from this administration.  Should Assad survive, whatever independence from Iran he might have once had will be gone.  Assad has agreed to allow the construction of an Iranian naval base as well. 

With the upheaval in Egypt, the only successful Middle East peace treaty is in jeopardy.  The Egyptian border crossing into Gaza is now open and Hamas is very happy; it's so much easier getting weapons without the prying eyes of the Israelis.  Iranian warships, banned since 1979, have been allowed to transverse the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean.  That naval base in Syria will come in handy.  Egypt, once considered a strong American ally, is now drifting within the Iranian orbit.

Turkey, another erstwhile American ally, is now flirting openly with the Iranians, while marching unrelentingly away from secularism towards becoming an Islamic state.  In service of this goal, Prime Minister Erdogan has been prosecuting a witch-hunt, arresting secular military officers on trumped up charges.  Recently, the entire senior staff of the nation's armed forces, once the guarantor of secularism, resigned.  Turkey shares a border with Iran and Syria.  Should Iran openly declare war on Israel and by extension, America, the US Air Base at Incirlik and the Izmir Air Station would be invaluable to the defense of US troops, as well as our attack capabilities.  That is, if the Turks allow its use.  What if they refuse; what would Mr. Obama do in this scenario?  You know what he would do: he would express grave concern and put his best team of men on it, while he went out to play another round of golf.     

For years, Iran has been an ardent supplier of arms in Afghanistan to al-Qaeda and the Taliban.  Weapons and bombs supplied by Iran are used to kill American soldiers, yet our president says nothing.  He's more worried about enforcing rules of engagement for our troops that prevent them from shooting first.  I would wager that this is the first war in the history of humanity where one side is not allowed to shoot first. 

With anti-US Shia cleric and Iranian puppet Moqtada Sadr now back in Iraq, Iranian efforts to undermine the fledgling democracy will accelerate as we reduce our troop levels.

Everyone knows that the best time to play golf is during the Arab Spring.  While our evaporated president lines up his putt, we sit on our hands begging the Chinese for help with sanctions, as the Iranian regime proceeds unabated toward the nuclear weapon they have so long craved, and their vision of a world without Israel and America. 

Even the Russians, having already done so much to help Iran become a nuclear power and with their own Islamic issues, are taking precautions, refusing to deliver the extremely effective S-300 Antiaircraft Missile Batteries already bought and paid for by Iran.  They realize that with a population quickly approaching 20% Muslim, they may have their own problem with the radical Islamic nation in the future.  It would not be wise to arm them too well -- just enough to keep the primary threat to America and Israel. 

As bad as all this is, there are some positives in the region.  The widening civil war in Syria and Turkey's position against the Assad regime, in opposition to Iran, is one.  The resolve of the Saudis, who could be the wild card when the war escalates into outright conflagration, is another.  The loss of Syria in particular would be a grievous blow to the Iranian plan for regional hegemony.  The fall of Assad would weaken Hezb'allah dramatically and remove all pretense that they are anything but an Iranian proxy.  Removing Syrian troops from any potential war and orphaning Hezb'allah will be good news for Israel and America.  Makes you wonder why our President has done nothing to help the rebellion. 

Sunni Saudi Arabia is no friend of Shiite Iran and they feel just as threatened by a potentially nuclear-armed Iran.  Iran has also been fomenting Shia rebellion in Bahrain.  They need to neutralize the Saudis, another American ally, and a Shiite rebellion on the Saudi Border just across the Persian Gulf from Iran is a nice start.  The Saudis, displaying uncharacteristic backbone, have sent troops to Bahrain in support of the government.  They are not fools; they understand that the Iranian endgame includes control of all Islamic holy lands, which, in essence, is Saudi Arabia.  Maybe they are intimidated enough to allow Israeli jets overflight on their way to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, or even take part in an attack.

In any case, it won't be long now.  Israel will at some point have to decide if they are going to allow a nuclear Iran.  They will need to attack soon if they are to have any chance of being successful, if it's not too late already.  This is what happens when you have a bumbling narcissist as president, playing self-aggrandizing geopolitical games, while he abandons our allies in pursuit of the illusion of Islamic respect. 

History has taught us that when someone tells you that they are going to kill you, you should believe them.  Our president's policy of pretending that Iran is not going to use their future military capability to wage war on Israel and America is foolish.  The war has started, and although it may be a quiet war, sticking our head in the sand will not prevent escalation, and the inevitable result of this policy will be an Armageddon that will consume the Middle East and perhaps America as well.

So where are we?  You have a soon-to-be-nuclear-armed Iran, Hamas and Hezb'allah, and possibly Syria, with help from Turkey, and Egypt against a completely surrounded Israel, maybe Saudi Arabia and her allies, and an America under the guidance of a weak president. 

In 2½ short years, Barack Obama has done more damage to this nation, economically and internationally, than any man, war, enemy, or disaster in the history of the union.  Dr. Downgrade has not only lessened our economic might; he has weakened us internationally to the point that should this quiet war ever become loud, I shudder to think of the consequences.  

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