Economists now say Brexit doom-and-gloom forecasts were wrong

One of Great Britain's leading economic think-tanks has admitted that it was wrong in forecasting a slowing economy as a result of the country pulling out of the E.U.  In fact, it's now saying Great Britain's economy will actually surpass that of France by 2020.

Daily Mail:

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had claimed [that] the economy would slow down because of a drop in consumer spending and investment.

But last night the think-tank admitted it had got this wrong, saying: 'In practice this has not happened.'

Its economists accepted [that] the fears they expressed last year that Brexit would leave the UK behind the French economy for five years were exaggerated.

They concluded that, despite fears of a 'Brexodus' of financiers, the City has actually increased its lead as the world's financial centre since the referendum.

The CEBR said that a trade deal with Brussels looked more likely after Theresa May agreed [to] a transitional deal with the EU earlier this month.

It said Britons should expect lower inflation and higher wages over the next few months, easing pressure on family finances.  And the think-tank predicted [that] the UK – now the world's sixth-largest economy – will overtake France in 2020, a year earlier than it originally forecast.

However, it will also be overtaken by India and then by Brazil, making Britain the seventh-biggest economy by 2028.

Not all economists were predicting doom and gloom as a result of the Brexit vote.  But the number-one selling point for the opposition to Brexit had always been that the British economy would experience a downturn as a result of Britain's withdrawal from the E.U.  Now it appears that Brexit will have the opposite effect.

Naturally, the Tories were jubilant:

Last night Tory MPs hit out at economists for their gloomy forecasts over the Brexit referendum.  Andrew Bridgen said: 'As we know from Project Fear, the main function of economists is explaining why their last forecast was wrong.'

And Jacob Rees-Mogg added: 'Many forecasts are honestly wrong, but unfortunately many of the forecasts around Brexit were politically motivated and have undermined trust in the probity and impartiality of those making them.'

President Kennedy once mused that he wished he had a one-handed economist because "all my economists say, 'on the one hand...on the other.'"  Economics is not called the "dismal science" for nothing.  But whatever credibility economists have is based on the perception that they keep politics out of their analyses.

The CEBR was supposed to be an independent think-tank.  Instead, it became a tool of Brexit opponents who used the prestige and reputation of the organization to frighten people into voting against Britain leaving the E.U.

It didn't work, and now the CEBR has a long road ahead to regain some of its credibility.

One of Great Britain's leading economic think-tanks has admitted that it was wrong in forecasting a slowing economy as a result of the country pulling out of the E.U.  In fact, it's now saying Great Britain's economy will actually surpass that of France by 2020.

Daily Mail:

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had claimed [that] the economy would slow down because of a drop in consumer spending and investment.

But last night the think-tank admitted it had got this wrong, saying: 'In practice this has not happened.'

Its economists accepted [that] the fears they expressed last year that Brexit would leave the UK behind the French economy for five years were exaggerated.

They concluded that, despite fears of a 'Brexodus' of financiers, the City has actually increased its lead as the world's financial centre since the referendum.

The CEBR said that a trade deal with Brussels looked more likely after Theresa May agreed [to] a transitional deal with the EU earlier this month.

It said Britons should expect lower inflation and higher wages over the next few months, easing pressure on family finances.  And the think-tank predicted [that] the UK – now the world's sixth-largest economy – will overtake France in 2020, a year earlier than it originally forecast.

However, it will also be overtaken by India and then by Brazil, making Britain the seventh-biggest economy by 2028.

Not all economists were predicting doom and gloom as a result of the Brexit vote.  But the number-one selling point for the opposition to Brexit had always been that the British economy would experience a downturn as a result of Britain's withdrawal from the E.U.  Now it appears that Brexit will have the opposite effect.

Naturally, the Tories were jubilant:

Last night Tory MPs hit out at economists for their gloomy forecasts over the Brexit referendum.  Andrew Bridgen said: 'As we know from Project Fear, the main function of economists is explaining why their last forecast was wrong.'

And Jacob Rees-Mogg added: 'Many forecasts are honestly wrong, but unfortunately many of the forecasts around Brexit were politically motivated and have undermined trust in the probity and impartiality of those making them.'

President Kennedy once mused that he wished he had a one-handed economist because "all my economists say, 'on the one hand...on the other.'"  Economics is not called the "dismal science" for nothing.  But whatever credibility economists have is based on the perception that they keep politics out of their analyses.

The CEBR was supposed to be an independent think-tank.  Instead, it became a tool of Brexit opponents who used the prestige and reputation of the organization to frighten people into voting against Britain leaving the E.U.

It didn't work, and now the CEBR has a long road ahead to regain some of its credibility.

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